Are we turning the corner? Is there light ahead? Can we discern traces of economic recovery?
Or is this a comparative calm before a storm that will be far more tumultuous than anything we have experienced in the past six months and test this error-prone Government to breaking point?
Let’s look on the brighter side for a moment. It’s likely that schools will finally reopen in England at the beginning of September. That will be a huge step towards normality.
The Prime Minister will have to show great statesmanship, as will European leaders. His room for compromise is limited since he can’t give EU countries rights over our territorial waters, or accept the jurisdiction of the European Court
Granted, with Education Secretary Gavin Williamson’s limp hand on the tiller and the teaching unions whingeing as per usual, anything could still go wrong.
Nonetheless, there are reasons for thinking that the Government will make it happen.
The Prime Minister is reported to have told allies that ‘failure to reopen schools is not an option’. He’s right.
Panic
And he was right last night to appeal to parents to send their children back to the classroom next week, saying that there is ‘a moral duty to reopen schools to all pupils safely’.
Incidentally, one wonders why the lugubrious chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and colleagues could not have said a month or two ago what they have just declared — namely, that parents can send children back to school in the knowledge that they face an ‘exceptionally small risk’ from Covid-19.
Let’s not get too bogged down in the past, though. Enumerating the Government’s mistakes during the pandemic can be a depressing business. The good news is that schools are probably going back.
While there are bound to be setbacks — inevitable outbreaks of the disease in a few schools, and doubtless much resulting panic — Professor Whitty’s belated optimism will very likely turn out to be justified.
But what if things go badly wrong on another front? That is a question considered in a Cabinet Office document leaked to The Sun On Sunday, which has been aptly dubbed the ‘Doomsday Dossier’. It sends shivers down my spine.
The Prime Minister is reported to have told allies that ‘failure to reopen schools is not an option’. He’s right. The PM is pictured in a classroom earlier this month
Emergency plans are being drawn up to protect the United Kingdom from the perfect storm of a second wave of Covid-19 during the winter months coinciding with a No-Deal Brexit at the end of December.
The dossier suggests that the double impact of a revival of the virus and a failure to get a free trade agreement with the EU could lead to public disorder, shortages and price increases.
An already weakened economy would tank. Troops might be put on the streets to deal with civil unrest.
Planners surmise that, in the absence of a deal, France will impose ‘mandatory controls on UK goods from day one’ — i.e. January 1, 2021 — and that between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel are unprepared. Kent could become a lorry park.
The document reckons that the flow of goods between Dover and Calais might decline by 45 per cent for three months, leading to some medicines and food being in short supply. Three quarters of our medicine imports come through Dover.
Other unfortunate possible outcomes floated by the apocalyptic dossier include some cash-strapped town halls going bust, and airdrops of food and medicine being made to the Channel Islands.
Lorries are seen pictured lining up outside of Dover in March 2019 before Operation Slack to prepare for Dover border queues
What should we make of all this? My first thought was that the hair-raising passages about the dire consequences of a No-Deal Brexit may have been written by highly strung Remainer civil servants who have watched too many American disaster movies.
Of course, none of this might happen. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, whose baby the dossier seems to be, says it ‘is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen but rather a stretching scenario. It reflects a responsible government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities.’
That sounds sensible, and it comes as a relief that, in a rather disorganised administration, there is some proper thinking. Notwithstanding my suspicions about overwrought Remainer officials, one would have to be bone-headed not to take these warnings seriously.
It’s certainly feasible that Covid-19 might make a comeback. Indeed, it seems already to be doing so in some European countries, such as Spain, though the death rate appears to be significantly lower relative to the number of infections than when the virus first struck in March.
And there could be bottlenecks in Dover and other ports as a result of the French authorities applying tariffs and, dare one say it, acting in a characteristically petty and obstructive way.
So disaster may lie ahead. This Government could be on the verge of being tested even more than it has been during the Covid crisis, when it made a succession of unforced errors, most egregiously over testing and the rapid spread of the virus in care homes.
Fiasco
If one quarter of the Doomsday Dossier ever comes about, No 10 will have to demonstrate a strength of purpose and clarity of thought that have often been lacking in recent months. This is not the time for bluster or boosterism.
Yesterday’s newspapers brought the latest crop of embarrassments for the Government. It transpires Gavin Williamson took a week’s holiday by the sea in the run-up to the examinations fiasco.
While he was away (aides insist he kept in touch via Zoom), the Scottish government ditched an algorithm-based system for predicting grades. Mr Williamson returned to work days before a similar scheme was introduced in England, precipitating an outcry followed by a U-turn.
Was this sensible behaviour? No, it was not. An equally frivolous attitude was evident in Education Minister Gillian Keegan taking a fortnight’s holiday in France from August 6. Throughout her stay she posted smug photographs on Instagram, some of which were ‘liked’ by her boss, Gavin Williamson.
Somehow these two episodes symbolise the lack of serious intent sometimes visible at the heart of this Government — just as did Boris Johnson’s failure to attend five consecutive meetings of Cobra in January and early February, when plans for combatting the impending pandemic were discussed.
Lethal
That’s in the past, and we mustn’t hark on it. But is there any reason to suppose that the Government will be more focused if, as the Doomsday Dossier foresees, problems of almost unprecedented severity come flying towards it?
There will have to be compromise on both sides if there is to be a deal with the EU.
Brussels thinks it can treat us as though we are still a member, for example by maintaining unfettered access to our fishing waters.
Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, whose baby the dossier seems to be, says it ‘is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen but rather a stretching scenario. It reflects a responsible government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities
Meanwhile, the Government wants the free-trade privileges of membership without any of the responsibilities.
The Prime Minister will have to show great statesmanship, as will European leaders.
His room for compromise is limited since he can’t give EU countries rights over our territorial waters, or accept the jurisdiction of the European Court.
But there’s little doubt a No-Deal Brexit would inflict a lethal economic blow.
As for Covid-19, if there is a second wave we will be better prepared, though there are still doubts about the effectiveness of testing. Whatever advice the likes of Professor Whitty may give, Mr Johnson surely recognises that another national lockdown would be suicidal.
It’s hard to think of another peacetime leader who has faced such enormous challenges. Can Boris rise to the occasion? I don’t know.
What I do know is that, as he gets his feet back under the Downing Street desk, it is the next six months which will define his prime ministership. They may also make or break this country.