Britain announces 129 more Covid-19 deaths

Britain today recorded 128 more coronavirus deaths in the lowest Saturday rise post-lockdown, taking the total number of victims to 42,589. 

More than 303,000 people have now tested positive for the viral disease, after 1,295 Britons were diagnosed in the last day – but millions of cases have gone unreported because of a lack of widespread testing early in the crisis. 

Today’s death figure is the lowest Saturday jump since March 21, two days before lockdown when just 56 fatalities were recorded. 

For comparison, there were 181 deaths last Saturday and 204 the week before that. At the height of the crisis, a record 1,115 Covid deaths were recorded on Saturday April 18.

It comes after it was revealed the coronavirus’s reproduction ‘R’ rate is still on the brink of spiralling out of control in three regions of England, despite the UK’s alert level being downgraded and plans to end lockdown within a fortnight being put into motion. 

SAGE scientists estimate the R – the average number of people a Covid-19 patient infects – is hovering close to the dreaded number of one in London, the North West and the Midlands, despite being lower for the UK as a whole. 

But scientists told MailOnline today that using the R to assess the UK’s crisis is becoming less useful because of falling prevalence of the disease in the community.

In other coronavirus developments today: 

• Drinkers have gathered outside pubs across Britain amid plans to give al fresco garden and street drinking the green-light, as scientists clear path for Boris to slash two-metre rule;
• Fewer than 10 countries will have an ‘air bridge’ to the UK and travelers arriving from elsewhere could have to pay for a COVID-19 test to avoid 14-day quarantine;
• The Government has been accused of underplaying coronavirus death toll at height of crisis as it is revealed more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days;
• Boris plans to get all children back to school in September as Education Secretary Gavin Williamson announced plans to double the size of class ‘bubbles’ to allow up to 30 pupils in classrooms at once;
• The ‘R’ number is hovering close to one in the North West, Midlands and London – but scientists say it’s NOT time to panic because lower number of cases makes measurements more volatile.

The R is thought to be between 0.8 and 1.0 in the Midlands, the highest of any region in Britain, and slightly lower in London and the North West, where estimates put it in the range of 0.7 and 1.0.  

Covid-19’s reproduction rate must stay below one or cases will start to grow exponentially again and the UK could be faced with a second wave of the virus.  

For example, an R rate of just 1.2 would mean every 10 people who became infected would pass the virus onto 12 more people. Those 12 would, in turn, infect 14 people who would then pass the disease on to more than 17, and so on. 

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said the fewer infected patients there are, the greater the margin for error when estimating the R value, especially when looking at specific areas of the UK. 

For example, if there are only 10 cases and one of them infects three people, it would push the R rate up significantly and skew the average.      

Professor Heneghan told MailOnline: ‘There is a problem with using the R rate now, as infection comes down to very low levels. The R will fluctuate, so you would expect the R to become a less accurate measurement of the epidemic. No-one will get a handle on the R rate when 80% people are asymptomatic and the virus is circulating at such low levels. 

‘What really matters is looking at data such as hospital admissions, 999 calls, GP consultation rates and NHS 111 interactions. And when we look at these, all of them are reassuringly coming down.’    

It comes after Britain’s ‘Covid-alert’ level was downgraded from level four to level three after scientists confirmed that the epidemic is shrinking by 4 per cent every day.

Government scientists published growth rate data for the first time on Friday. Until now, SAGE had only provided details on the R rate – the average number of people an infected person is likely to pass the virus on to.

For the UK as a whole, the current growth rate is minus 4 per cent to minus 2 per cent and the estimate of the reproduction number, referred to as R, remains at 0.7 to 0.9.

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, and, as the number of infections decreases, is another way of keeping track of the virus.

If the growth rate is greater than zero, and therefore positive, then the disease will grow, and if the growth rate is less than zero, then the disease will shrink.

It is an approximation of the change in the number of infections each day, and the size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change.

It takes into account various data sources, including government-run Covid-19 surveillance testing schemes. For example, a growth rate of 5 per cent is faster than a growth rate of 1 per cent, while a disease with a growth rate of minus 4 per cent will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of minus 1 per cent. 

R estimates – which are at least three weeks behind – do not indicate how quickly an epidemic is changing and different diseases with the same R can result in epidemics that grow at very different speeds. 

Growth rates provide different information from R estimates, by suggesting the size and speed of change, whereas the R value only gives data on the direction of change.

To calculate R, information on the time it takes for one set of people in an infected group to infect a new set of people in the next group is needed.

However, the growth rate is estimated using a range of data similar to R, but it does not depend on the ‘generation time’ and so requires fewer assumptions to estimate.

Neither measure – R or growth rate – is better than the other but each provides information that is useful in monitoring the spread of a disease. Experts say each should be considered alongside other measures of the spread of disease.

Boris Johnson is expected to unveil a raft of new measures over the next fortnight to end the UK’s lockdown on the back of the low R levels and shrinking infections, hospital admissions and deaths.

The Government’s scientific advisers have green-lit plans to cut the two-metre social distancing rule in half so that pubs, restaurants and hotels can reopen early next month following a dramatic lowering of the coronavirus alert level.

Pubs will be asked to strictly monitor their beer gardens to ensure social distancing and customers will be encouraged to order their drinks via a phone app. In restaurants, staff will not be able to set tables in advance while hotel staff are being asked to place room service on door steps in a bid to minimise contact between staff and guests.

There will also be a ban on self-service buffets while napkins and cutlery must be brought out only with food, under the new guidelines seen by the Times. The guidance also states that all menus must be disposable and discarded after every use.

Any hotel guests who fall ill will be forced to self-isolate either at home or in their hotel rooms which will be cordoned off for 72 hours after they check out. Gyms will also be asked to enforce social distances between their machines – though they are not expected to reopen until later this year.

Clubbers may have to wait a while before they can hit the dancefloor however, as they pose difficulties for social distancing. Temperature checks and hand sanitiser at the door could become part of the British night out when clubs finally do reopen.

Ministers are also in negotiations with a dozen other countries – including Spain, Portugal, Greece and France – to set up ‘air bridges’ that would allow tourists to travel between them this summer without a mandatory 14-day quarantine. 

School ‘bubbles’ – which currently only allow 15 pupils in a classroom at once – will also be doubled to allow all children to return to school in September and get lessons back up and running. 

And NHS bosses will write to more than 2 million vulnerable patients in England who have been shielding since March to assure them it’s safe to go to the shops and get exercise outdoors.