Employers could shun workers who have not had coronavirus after lockdown, prompting people to actively try to catch the disease or obtain fake test results on the blackmarket, the government’s science experts warned ministers.
Secret documents prepared by the independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) last month outlined the potential drawbacks of introducing widespread antibody testing and so-called ‘immunity certificates’.
Such tests would show if someone has had the disease and if they have some degree of immunity with accompanying digital certificates then showing employers the health status of staff.
Antibody tests are viewed as one of the key pieces in the puzzle when it comes to getting the UK back to work.
But SPI-B, a sub-committee of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said introducing the tests could result in people trying to ‘game’ the system.
The documents suggest workers who do not have antibodies could be discriminated against, effectively creating two classes of employee, with those who have had the disease prized because of a belief that they will not get ill again.
Those who are antibody negative could then turn to trying to obtain fake test results or even trying to get ill on purpose to boost their chances of returning to work.
Meanwhile, the documents also warned positive tests could result in people wrongly thinking they no longer need to wash their hands, risking an increase in the transmission of the disease.
Those who are antibody negative could also be too afraid to leave home and could refuse to return to work, the group said.
The warnings about antibody testing came as separate documents showed scientists were urging Boris Johnson to tell people to stop shaking hands on the same day that he boasted he was still shaking hands with ‘everybody’.
Newly-released records on the advice given to the government as the coronavirus crisis erupted show Mr Johnson seemingly flouted the recommendations from his own experts.
A meeting of the behavioural group that feeds into SAGE on March 3 concluded that ‘Government should advise against greetings such as shaking hands and hugging, given existing evidence about the importance of hand hygiene’.
Boris Johnson, pictured in St James’ Park this morning, was warned by the government’s science experts that antibody testing and ‘immunity certificates’ could have unintended negative consequences
Mr Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock have relied heavily on advice from Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance during the crisis. The four are pictured in Downing Street on March 12
The antibody test warnings and advice on shaking hands were just two of today’s SAGE revelations as some of the panel’s documents were finally published. Others included:
- A government-funded study found at least a dozen different strains of coronavirus were spreading through the UK in March.
- Ministers were warned by their expert scientific advisers that lifting the coronavirus lockdown and then reimposing restrictions later would be seen by the public as a ‘serious failure of policy’.
A mass-produced antibody test which is accurate enough to be rolled out at a national level is yet to be identified by any country in the world.
But the UK government is hoping for a breakthrough in the near future with the tests viewed as one of the keys to getting Britain back to work.
Ministers are in talks with tech firms about developing an ‘immunity certificate’ app which would show if someone has been tested and if they have coronavirus antibodies.
The SPI-B committee was tasked with examining the potential negative outcomes of introducing antibody testing.
Documents written on April 13 and finally published today show such a regime could have devastating unintended consequences.
The experts warned that ‘some employers may discriminate on the basis of antibody status’.
That could include not allowing people who have tested negative to return to work or only hiring people who are antibody positive.
The group said that could prompt people to try to cheat the system or to try to catch coronavirus.
The experts wrote: ‘If a test result is a requirement for a resumption of work, a range of strategies to “game” the system may arise.
‘These include people deliberately seeking out infection or attempting to purchase a fake test result, commercial organisations selling unapproved tests, or approved tests becoming available through private organisations at prices that make them unavailable to most.’
Meanwhile, those workers who have not had coronavirus could be too afraid to go outside, reducing their social contact to unhealthy levels, and some could simply refuse to return to work.
The group said: ‘It is possible that people told they have not yet had the virus may feel more vulnerable and wish to avoid specific activities at work that pose a risk to their health, or seek to avoid attendance at work entirely.’
The group also expressed major concerns that positive tests could drastically alter people’s behaviour.
Those who have tested positive for antibodies may wrongly ‘believe they have no chance of becoming infected with COVID-19 in the future’.
That means that if they developed the key symptoms of a cough or fever they may not think they need to self-isolate, increasing the risk of infecting others.
People who test positive could also stop washing their hands, the scientists said, which would also boost transmission.
Scientists are yet to determine with 100 per cent certainty whether people who have had coronavirus have a high level of resistance to the disease. They are also trying to establish whether that immunity could wane over time. But total immunity has already been ruled out.
The SPI-B group also raised concerns about the accuracy of the tests and the potential for people to be given a false sense of protection.
For example, if five per cent of tests were actually incorrect then thousands of workers could wrongly believe they are safe from the disease.
This would have particularly bad consequences if people with positive antibody tests decided to volunteer for high coronavirus exposure jobs, the group said.
‘Some testing “Antibody Positive” may actively volunteer to take on activities at work with high exposure to COVID-19,’ the experts said.
‘This might include customer-facing roles or tasks within health or social care that involve greater contact with COVID-19 patients.
‘This would be particularly problematic if the test result was incorrect.’