Will ‘coronaphobia’ stop UK getting up and running?

Ministers were warned the ‘stay at home’ messaging might have been too successful today amid fears ‘coronaphobia’ could stop the country getting back up and running. 

Boris Johnson revealed last night that the government will unveil a ‘road map’ next week for how the country can return to a semblance of normal life while keeping the deadly disease under control.

Frantic work is under way in Whitehall on how businesses can resume activities, with every day on hold estimated to wipe around £2billion from GDP. Staff working every other week, wearing PPE in canteens, and face coverings on public transport are all being mooted to help reduce the risks.

But polling has suggested 61 per cent of Britons would be nervous about going out to bars and restaurants even if the draconian restrictions are loosened. The UK population appears to be among the most nervous in the world, with more than a quarter saying lockdown should not be eased even if the PM’s ‘five tests’ are met.

There are reports that some people who have returned to work have been getting abuse from neighbours who believe they are threatening their safety.

• In another tumultuous day of coronavirus developments:
• Ministers voiced confidence today that the 100,000 a day target for coronavirus tests has been met after a last-minute surge; 
• Experts said it was ‘perfectly reasonable’ for the UK to start easing lockdown before a contact tracing regime is fully in place’; 
• Ryanair has announced 3,000 job cuts as it revealed it expects to operate under 1 per cent of its schedule between April and June; 
• Heathrow chief executive John Holland-Kaye has warned that social distancing at airports is ‘physically impossible’; 
• The ONS has published local breakdowns of coronavirus-related deaths suggesting deprived areas are most at risk.

Statistician Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a government adviser, said today that the ‘social distancing’ communications strategy.

‘It’s much harder to frighten to people to stay at home than it is to reassure them they can go out again,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘Maybe our whole campaign has been, if anything, slightly too successful.’ 

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick admitted that getting UK plc back on its feet would require the public accepting a more ‘nuanced’ message.

He said that sectors such as housing and construction ‘on the whole’ could go back to work now as the majority was done outside and could be carried out in accordance with social distancing.

‘I think we are, at the moment, where the country can take a message that is slightly nuanced and saying ‘this is what you need to do today, but this is what the future looks like so that you and your family can start to prepare’.’

In response to Mr Johnson’s optimism that the UK economy would ‘bounce back’ following the pandemic, Mr Jenrick said he too was confident.

‘The fundamentals of the British economy remain sound,’ he said. 

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said the government will need to ‘take people with us’.

‘As we move to open up things again, we will be careful and cautious, we will have to take people with us,’ he said.

‘Our efforts over the last week have been directed at working with our trade unions, our local authorities and other stakeholders because you can open up anything you like, but if people don’t think it’s safe to take up what is now available to them, they won’t come.’

According to Ipsos MORI research conducted earlier this week, 61 per cent of the public would be uncomfortable about going out to bars and restaurants or using public transport if lockdown was eased next month.

Just 22 per cent of those aged 55 to 75 would be happy going out to pubs or to eat. 

A third would be concerned about going out to meet friends or family. 

Just over half – 51 per cent – would be at ease with shopping in a supermarket while 49 per cent would be comfortable in other shops.  

Some 48 per cent voiced anxiety about sending their children back to school, and a third would be nervous going back to school.  

Two-thirds – 67 per cent – would be uncomfortable going to large public gatherings, such as sports or concerts.  

David Nabarro, the World Health Organisation’s special envoy on Covid-19, said it would be ‘perfectly reasonable’ for the UK to start easing the lockdown before a full contact tracing system is up and running.  

‘Every government is having to make a choice and I understand that the contact tracing process is now well advanced and so that’s a reasonable time to be thinking through how lockdown can be eased, and it won’t be eased all at once, it will be eased bit by bit,’ he told Today.

He added: ‘You don’t need to have 100 per cent contact tracing in order to get the R-number down. The contact tracing is an absolutely essential part of reducing transmission, and getting that capacity as widely spread as possible is key to getting the transmission as low as you can.

‘But you certainly can release the lockdown while you’re building up the case finding and contact tracing capacity – that’s what most other countries are doing.

‘They don’t wait until everything is ready and so it’s perfectly reasonable for Britain to be thinking through these options and working our how it’s going to do the next steps.’

Heading his first Downing Street briefing since falling ill last night, the Prime Minister said the UK is now on the ‘downward slope’ and praised Britons for having avoided an ‘uncontrollable and catastrophic’ epidemic. 

But Mr Johnson dashed hopes of an imminent loosening, after making clear that a new flare-up of the deadly disease would be worse than the current crippling impact on the economy. 

He claimed that efforts to bolster the NHS had avoided a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ of 500,000 deaths if no action to combat the pandemic had been taken, likening it to digging a tunnel under an alpine mountain.

But in the strongest hint yet that restrictions will run into June and beyond, he added: ‘It is vital that we do not now lose control and run slap into a second and even bigger mountain.’

The premier said a ‘huge amount of work’ was going into an ‘exit strategy’ with the first draft to be published next week. While it will offer a ‘road map, a menu of options’ for how the curbs could be eased in future, he cautioned that it would not give any timings as they would depend on the science. 

He gave a strong hint that it will involve advising people to wear face coverings in some circumstances, saying they ‘will be useful’ as the situation evolves. 

Mr Johnson also said he was ‘not going to pretend’ the government had not made any mistakes in the handling of the crisis, pointing to PPE supplies. He admitted they were learning lessons every day.  

The tough message came as Mr Johnson put the ‘R’ number – the reproduction rate of the virus – at the heart of the battle. He insisted nothing can be done that lets it rise above one, which would mean the outbreak was growing again.

Scientific adviser Patrick Vallance told the briefing that he believed the R was currently between 0.6 and 0.9 across the country.