Majority of the public in Northern Ireland believe it will have split from the UK within 25 years, poll finds
- Poll shows 51 per cent think Northern Ireland will split from UK in next 25 years
- Some 37 per cent believe it will be part of the UK while 12 per cent don’t know
- If border poll was today 49 per cent in Northern Ireland would vote to stay in UK
A majority of the public in Northern Ireland believe it will split from the UK within 25 years, according to a new poll.
Some 37 per cent of people said they believe Northern Ireland will still be part of the UK in a quarter of a century but 51 per cent believe it will not be.
In the Republic of Ireland just 26 per cent of voters believe Northern Ireland will still be part of the UK in 25 years compared to 54 per cent who believe it will not be.
However, if a border poll was held today some 49 per cent of people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK while 43 per cent would support a united Ireland.
The poll findings come amid heightened community tensions in Northern Ireland which have been inflamed by disruption caused by post-Brexit trade checks.
Just 37 per cent of people said they believe Northern Ireland will still be part of the UK in a quarter of a century but 51 per cent believe it will not be
The Lucid Talk poll, which had a sample size of 2,845 and a 2.5 per cent margin of error, was conducted for BBC NI’s Spotlight programme between April 5-7.
Spotlight commissioned a similar poll in the Irish Republic as part of a special programme reflecting on the centenary of Northern Ireland’s foundation.
In the Irish Republic, 51 per cent of people said they would vote for a united Ireland while 27 per cent would vote against it.
That poll was conducted by Lucid Talk/Ireland Thinks between April 6-9. The sample size was 1,008 with a 2.5 per cent margin of error.
The poll also asked people for their views on the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol that governs post-Brexit trading arrangements between the region and the rest of the UK.
In Northern Ireland, opinion was sharply divided, with 48 per cent wanting it scrapped and 46 per cent thinking it should be retained.
In the Irish Republic, 74 per cent said the protocol should be retained, with 10 per cent saying it should be scrapped.
In terms of Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the longer term, the survey also asked people if they thought the region would still be within the UK in 10 years.
On the 10-year timeframe, 55 per cent of people in Northern Ireland felt it would still be in the UK, with 32 per cent believing a united Ireland would be achieved by then.
In the Irish Republic, 59 per cent felt Northern Ireland would still be in the UK in 10 years, with 26 per cent predicting Irish unity would have been achieved by then.
if a border poll was held today some 49 per cent of people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK while 43 per cent would support a united Ireland
The results were significantly different for 25 years. In Northern Ireland, 37 per cent felt the region would still be part of the UK in 25 years, with 51 per cent believing it would not.
In the Irish Republic, 26 per cent felt Northern Ireland would still be part of the UK in 25 years, with 54 per cent saying it would not.
The poll, which was taken in a period when disorder was flaring in certain areas of Northern Ireland, asked people if they thought violence could return to the region.
In Northern Ireland, 76 per cent said yes. In the Irish Republic, 87 per cent feared a potential return to conflict.