No10 may have to roll back its target date for vaccinating all adults if AstraZeneca‘s jab is banned for under-30s, an expert warned today.
And Britain may need to approve vaccines developed by Russia or China in order to hit the goal of offering everyone a first dose by the end of July.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), which polices the safety of drugs in the UK, is considering restricting AstraZeneca’s jab for under-30s, it was claimed last night.
Vaccine watchdogs insist no decision has yet to be made and and insiders say they are not expecting any German-style ban for certain age groups.
But Dr Simon Clarke, an infectious disease expert at the University of Reading, told MailOnline the UK would struggle to hit its July 31 vaccination target if AstraZeneca’s jab is banned for under-30s.
He said it would mean the UK would need to buy millions more doses of other jabs in a matter of a few of months.
But Dr Clarke added: ‘Given the global demand, it seems unlikely that they’d be able to secure Pfizer, Moderna or Johnson and Johnson vaccines quickly enough and it seems unlikely that Novavax will be ready in time.
‘The only other option seems to be for the government to roll back that target date, or perhaps try to secure approval and supply of vaccines from Russia or China.’
The UK may have to roll back its target date for vaccinating all adults if AstraZeneca’s vaccine is banned for under-30s, Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor of microbiology at the University of Reading, has warned
Trials have shown China’s vaccine is only 50 per cent effective at blocking Covid symptoms. It is being used in Chile, which has had to implement new restrictions in the face of a spike in cases.
Russia’s vaccine, called Sputnik V, is thought to be around 90 per cent effective at thwarting infections.
Government sources last week claimed Johnson & Johnson’s single dose jab could be given to under-30s.
But Dr Clarke warned it was not a likely outcome because the jab isn’t expected to be approved until July.
He said this would mean that half the UK’s 30million order would need to arrive in time for July, with officials estimating there are around 14million adults under the age of 30.
‘J&J will have contracts to supply other countries and it seems highly unlikely that they would be willing or able to simply switch supply to the UK,’ Dr Clarke said.
Britain has already began rationing first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine, using supplies to ensure vulnerable people get their top-up within 12 weeks.
AstraZeneca has become the main weapon used in No10’s roll-out, with almost all first-timers getting the UK-developed jab towards the end of March.
Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine is set to come on stream by mid-April, with ministers having bought 17million doses — enough to vaccinate 8.5million people.
But supplies will come in drips between now and the end of the year and given they will be come on stream now, they are likely to be given to over-30s and 40s over the next few months.
No10 sources have repeatedly insisted the UK is on track to hit the goal of vaccinating all adults by the end of July.
The innoculation campaign could, however, be boosted by Novavax. Regulators have yet to approve the firm’s jab — but it should be ready by July.
Downing St has already bought 60million doses of the Durham-made jab. But health chiefs remain tight-lipped as to when supplies are expected.
And if Pfizer’s vaccine supply remains constant, it opens up the possibility that No10 will still be able to offer doses to younger adults.
Currently the immunisation drive is only open to over-50s and adults at-risk, with an expected shortage in April forcing ministers to pause on inviting over-40s. But Government sources are hopeful the roll-out can move down the age groups when Moderna finally gets deployed.
Technically Britain has enough vaccines to give everyone five doses — given it has ordered 457million doses from eight different pharmaceutical companies in total. But the roll-out depends entirely on supply, with not all vaccines coming at once.
Several European countries — including Germany, Spain and Norway — suspended AstraZeneca’s vaccine after dozens of vaccinated people suffered a rare brain clot, known as CVST, or cerebral venous sinus thrombosis.
The UK’s health watchdog announced last week it had saw 30 cases in 18.1million AstraZeneca-vaccinated people — around one in every 600,000 people (0.00017 per cent).
The MHRA is currently probing a link between the AstraZeneca jab and rare blood clots, but Government sources told The Daily Telegraph they were not expecting the regulator to put any restrictions on the company’s vaccine.
James Lawson, fellow at the Adam Smith Institute think tank said withdrawing the vaccine would damage the UK’s roll-out and should only be considered if there is ‘sufficient evidence that this is appropriate’.
He said: ‘The Oxford vaccine constitutes the majority of current UK supplies and plays an essential role in protecting the vulnerable and reducing Covid’s spread.
‘It provides us with the best path out of this horrible pandemic. It would be madness to fall prey to scaremongering by withdrawing the vaccine at this crucial moment until there is sufficient evidence that this is appropriate.
‘The regulators are right to continue investigating any side effects and monitoring these isolated cases further to better understand the risks, ensure confidence is maintained, and if necessary, to guide tweaks to the rollout.
‘If additional evidence emerges requiring a policy change, recipient groups should be altered at that stage.’
The MHRA has not confirmed when it will reveal its decision but insisted that while it was investigating blood clot fears, people should continue taking the vaccine.
It said: ‘People should continue to get their vaccine when invited to do so.
‘Our thorough and detailed review is ongoing into reports of very rare and specific types of blood clots with low platelets following the Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca.
‘No decision has yet been made on any regulatory action.’
It comes as one of the European drug regulator’s senior officials today claimed there is now a ‘clear’ link between AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine and potentially deadly blood clots.
Marco Cavaleri, head of vaccines at the European Medicines Agency (EMA), said that CVST — a brain blockage that can lead to a stroke — was occurring more often than expected in younger people.
But he admitted that the body was still baffled about how the jab may trigger the rare complication.
EMA officials are already probing the link between the vaccine and CVST, which is more common in young women. Watchdog bosses are expected to make a formal announcement tomorrow.
Despite his comments, Mr Cavaleri’s agency has repeatedly insisted AstraZeneca’s jab is safe and the benefits outweigh any risks.