Britain could be hit with an ‘exit wave’ of Covid when lockdown is lifted but it’s unlikely to lead to an uncontrollable spike in hospital admissions or deaths, experts insisted today despite the predictions of a SAGE model released last week.
Scientists told MailOnline that while there was ‘no doubt infections will rise’ when pubs and restaurants reopen and people start mixing again, the vaccines had ‘solved the problem of serious disease’.
They said that on top of the jab effect, the warm summer months will also curb transmission and stop huge spikes from spilling into the small number of vulnerable people who haven’t been jabbed or for whom the vaccines don’t work.
The comments came after bleak modelling by Government scientists suggested last week there could be a final peak of more than 1,000 deaths a day later in the year even with the immunisation programme steaming ahead.
Warwick University researchers, who made the projection, claimed the more infectious Kent variant would continue to spread in high numbers when lockdowns are eased, posing a constant threat to the elderly and ill –even with vaccines that cut transmission by 60 per cent, as the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs do.
Britain has vaccinated around 54 per cent of all adults – almost 28.7million people. But only 5 per cent of people – 2.5million – have had both jabs since the mass scheme began last December.
That is not far behind Israel’s vaccination level when it reopened the economy earlier this month. It had given 52 per cent of the country’s 9.3million people their first dose. At the same time, 40 per cent had received their booster shot. There as been no exit wave in Israel.
The Warwick modelling team, which feeds into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), has since admitted its estimates were too pessimistic and underestimated how effective the jabs would be at preventing hospitalisation and death.
The Sage model predicted that deaths could hit 1,000 a day in the summer if restrictions were lifted too quickly and vaccines proved less effective than hoped at preventing infection. Britain is due to open non essential retail and pub beer gardens on April 12, and most of the rest of the economy on May 17 before restrictions are lifted completely on 21 jUNE.
Reacting to Warwick’s findings, Professor Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at Nottingham University, told MailOnline: ‘That model is so wrong and it just shows you what’s wrong with models in general.’
He said it was inevitable cases will go up when lockdown is lifted but insisted people should ‘stop caring about cases and start thinking about people getting ill or dying’, problems which he claimed the vaccines had solved.
Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at the University of Bristol, told MailOnline that fresh breezy air and warm temperatures in summer were going to give the UK’s Covid situation another ‘fantastic advantage’. The virus finds it more difficult to spread outside and hot air reduces the time it can survive after being sneezed or coughed into the environment.
He pointed out that last year Covid deaths remained in double digits for four months of summer, without the help of vaccines. Professor Scally said the Warwick forecasts were ‘inconceivable’ unless a new variant that can duck vaccines becomes widespread.
Modelling by Warwick University, which feeds into SAGE, suggested there could have been 1,750 daily Covid deaths if Britain had lifted the majority of lockdown curbs and reverted to the rule of six and 10pm curfew in February (left). The modelling, published on March 18, suggested daily fatalities could hover at around 200 under Boris’ current lockdown plan (right). The purple line is what the researchers predict the UK’s epidemic will look like, because the vaccines have been shown to cut transmission by 60 per cent
Warwick also modelled what would happen to deaths if all curbs were gradually lifted by this summer (left) or in autumn (right). Both scenarios would result in a large winter peak, according to the calculations. Lifting all curbs by July could lead to 1,500 daily deaths at the peak, while lifting them by October could result in more than 1,000. Warwick’s Dr Sam Moore, co-author of the study, has since admitted the projections were too pessimistic. He told The Telegraph: ‘Since we conducted this study, new evidence suggests there may be a higher level of protection against severe disease offered by both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines than the level we assumed.’
But evidence from Israel, the only country jabbing faster than Britain, shows that cases continued to plummet after came out of lockdown a month ago (orange). When Israel opened up it had roughly 50 per cent of its population vaccinated, the same stage Britain is at now. Shown in blue is the country’s infection rate after reopening from its previous shutdown last year, before the vaccines were available
Professor Neal told MailOnline: ‘There’s no doubt that when people start mixing, cases will go up. But vaccines have solved the serious disease problem. We shouldn’t care about cases.
‘We think the country had about a million students catching Covid in the autumn last year and you’ll struggle to find a single one who was admitted to hospital let alone died.
‘So we need to care less about infections and start focusing on monitoring hospital admissions and deaths. The fear is that once lots of young people get infected that it spreads to vulnerable populations but we’re not sure that will happen.
‘We opened up last year and didn’t see the same splurge [as is suggested in Warwick’s modelling].’
Asked about how realistic Warwick’s forecasts were, Professor Scally added: ‘That’s inconceivable unless we see the worst possible circumstance, where the virus is able to run free and infect huge numbers of people with moderate risk.
‘I suppose if it circulates really widely then there might be the sort of numbers they suggest but that’s the most pessimistic picture… summer and being outdoors also has a fantastic advantage.’
He added that as long as a new variant doesn’t become widespread then ‘we probably won’t have it as bad as that [up to 1,000 deaths a day]’.
But he warned: ‘The Government is not helping – we still don’t have a good Test and Trace programme and we’re still not quarantining arrivals, so there will be the danger of variants.’
Dr Sam Moore, who co-authored the Warwick study, has since admitted his team’s calculations underestimated the jabs’ effect on severe disease.
Latest Public Health England analysis of the real-world impact of the jabs on Britain’s crisis has suggested they cut hospital admissions and deaths by more than 90 per cent after two doses, and by 85 and 80 per cent, respectively, after a single injection.
Dr Moore told The Telegraph last Friday: ‘Since we conducted this study, new evidence suggests there may be a higher level of protection against severe disease offered by both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines than the level we assumed.
‘This may reduce the size of future hospital admissions and deaths we estimated, making future waves more manageable for the health service.’
But despite the admission from Dr Moore, some NHS bosses are still preparing for worst possible outcomes this summer.
The NHS trust in Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, in Kent, which was hit hard in the second wave, expects up to 100 beds to be occupied by coronavirus patients in mid-June under a ‘reasonably optimistic’ scenario.
But it warned this could double to 200 beds — more than a quarter of those available — if vaccine uptake is poor, hampered by supply issues or affected by new variants.
The trust, which runs two hospitals, saw 90 beds occupied by Covid patients in the peak of the first wave last spring.
But this spiralled to more than 300 during the darkest days of the second wave, after the more infectious Kent variant triggered a devastating outbreak.
The forecasts were based on modelling by local health chiefs. But NHS sources said similar plans made at other trusts were based on gloomy predictions from SAGE that there could be a third wave of hospitalisations later this year.
The Trust’s meeting minutes, revealed by the Health Service Journal, showed they estimated a peak in Covid hospitalisations in the summer.
‘With schools returning and public behaviour changing, infection levels have a high probability of starting to pick up again in the younger, less medically vulnerable populations,’ they said.
‘This was observed in autumn, when case counts started to rise in the younger population, but hospital admissions remained very low until a few weeks later, when infections started to rise in older populations.’
But the trust also predicts hospitalisations should start to tail off from June in its ‘optimistic scenario’ as the pandemic starts to ‘burn itself out’.
They said this would be because the percentage of the population protected against the virus, either from vaccination or prior infection, would hit the critical 70 to 75 per cent ‘herd immunity’ level.
Ministers are aiming to vaccinate every adult in the country — 52million people — by the end of July.
But their roll-out has hit a snag this week amid a blocked delivery of 5million doses from India, and EU threats of a vaccines export ban.
And as the clock ticks down to when second doses must be administered en masse, millions of jabs are being held back to ensure the NHS has adequate supplies.
More than 150 mass vaccination centres could CLOSE next month as shortages force under-50s to wait for first doses – but Matt Hancock claims jabs had already saved than 6,000 lives by March and SAGE claims hospital admissions will HALVE in April
- Vaccine centres in Devon, Cornwall and Kent among those to have confirm they will ‘have to pause’ in April
- Health Secretary claimed No10 research found vaccination spared more than 6,000 lives end of February
- He said the success of the rollout meant he could ‘see an end’ to the crisis for the first time in the pandemic
- Forecasts by No10’s scientists said Covid admissions to English hospitals poised to halve in next fortnight
Mass coronavirus vaccination sites across the UK have announced they will close temporarily next month due to looming supply issues – as Matt Hancock revealed the jabs have saved at least 6,000 lives already in the UK.
Vaccine centres in Devon, Cornwall and Kent are among those to have confirmed they will ‘have to pause’ during the month-long slowdown, which has been triggered by a shortfall of five million AstraZeneca jabs from India. If the rest of the country follows suit, it could see all 150 mass vaccination sites shut.
The focus of the rollout will turn to ensuring there are sufficient vaccine stocks to dish out crucial second doses, with staff at mass hubs around the country expected to be redeployed.
Local vaccination centres have also been told to close unfilled bookings from March 31, with the supply constraint expected to last throughout April. The NHS has called on over-50s to book their first vaccine appointment while they still can before Monday, or risk facing delays.
GPs will continue contacting eligible patients on their lists, but some vaccination sites including Westpoint, near Exeter, have revealed they will shut between April 1 and 11. All of Kent’s five mass vaccination centres, for example, are set to close ‘for a number of weeks’ from next month.
The pause in Britain’s vaccine drive will mean that fewer Britons are vaccinated when No10 starts to reopen the economy on April 12 – but ministers have insisted the timetable will not be affected despite predictions of an ‘exit wave’ of Covid cases as society opens up.
Meanwhile, Mr Hancock today claimed new Government-backed research had found vaccination spared more than 6,000 lives by the end of February. He said the rollout’s success meant he could ‘see an end’ to the crisis.
His comments to the Financial Times came as forecasts by No10’s scientists suggested the number of Covid patients being admitted to English hospitals is poised to halve in a fortnight, from 294 to fewer than 150.
The projections from the SPI-M modelling group also projected the number of deaths to drop fourfold, from 92 to 20, early next month and the level of inpatients with the disease to plummet from 4,000 to about 2,000.
The promising calculations, which have been presented to ministers, were made after children returned to classrooms this month, The Times reports. There were fears that reopening schools could trigger a wave of infections.
SPI-M’s modelling assumes that vaccinations will continue at current levels. More than 450,000 Brits are being jabbed every day, but there are fears that supply issues next month could drastically slow the scheme down.
Government data up to March 23 shows 28,653,523 people have received a first vaccine dose, a rise of 325,650 on the previous day. Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer’s vaccines have been shown to cut deaths and hospitalisations by more than 90 per cent after both doses and symptomatic infections by over 60 per cent.
All the the metrics now suggest Boris Johnson’s cautious roadmap out of lockdown is firmly on track and the unusually optimistic projections from No10’s experts will pile more pressure on the PM to speed up his plan.
The next phase of his lockdown-loosening schedule sees people allowed to meet outdoors in groups of six, or as two households, from March 29.
April 12 will see the first major easing of restrictions as hairdressers, beauty salons and shops get the green-light and pubs and restaurants able to open for outdoor service.
Hospitality is not due to start welcoming customers through its doors until May and some form of social distancing rules will be in place until June 21 at the earliest.
Mr Hancock told the FT he could see an ‘end’ to the pandemic that would involve managing coronavirus ‘more like flu’ with repeated and updated vaccinations.
Mass coronavirus vaccination sites across the UK have announced they will close temporarily next month due to looming supply issues. Vaccine centres in Devon, Cornwall and Kent are among those to have confirmed they will ‘have to pause’ during the month-long slowdown. If the rest of the country follows suit, it could mean all 150 mass sites will shut
However, separate modelling by Warwick University, which feeds into SAGE, suggested there could have been an extraordinary 1,750 daily Covid deaths if Britain had lifted the majority of lockdown curbs and reverted to the rule of six and 10pm curfew in February (left). The modelling, published on March 18, suggested daily fatalities could hover at around 200 under Boris’ current lockdown plan (right). The purple line is what the researchers predict the UK’s epidemic will look like, because the vaccines have been shown to cut transmission by 60 per cent
Warwick also modelled what would happen to deaths if all curbs were gradually lifted by this summer (left) or in autumn (right). Both scenarios would result in a large winter peak, according to the calculations. Lifting all curbs by July could lead to 1,500 daily deaths at the peak, while lifting them by October could result in more than 1,000. Warwick’s Dr Sam Moore, co-author of the study, has since admitted the projections were too pessimistic. He told The Telegraph: ‘Since we conducted this study, new evidence suggests there may be a higher level of protection against severe disease offered by both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines than the level we assumed.’
But evidence from Israel, the only country jabbing faster than Britain, shows that cases continued to plummet after came out of lockdown a month ago (orange). When Israel opened up it had roughly 50 per cent of its population vaccinated, the same stage Britain is at now. Shown in blue is the country’s infection rate after reopning from its previous shutdown last year, before the vaccines were available
Matt Hancock today credited the coronavirus vaccines with saving at least 6,000 lives already in the UK. Meanwhile, internal Government projections have predicted Covid hospital admissions will halve by April because of the jabs – suggesting Boris’ roadmap out of lockdown is firmly on track
Projections from the SPI-M modelling group suggested the number of Covid patients being admitted to English hospitals is poised to halve in a fortnight, from 294 to fewer than 150
The group also projected the number of deaths to drop fourfold, from 92 to 20, early next month and the level of inpatients (shown) with the disease to plummet from 4,000 to about 2,000
Government data up to March 23 shows 28,653,523 people have received a first vaccine dose, a rise of 325,650 on the previous day
The unusually optimistic projections from No10’s experts will pile more pressure on the PM to speed up his lockdown-loosening plan
The Health Secretary expressed confidence about the UK’s ability to manage Covid-19 in the future, adding: ‘It depends what you mean by ”end”.
‘I see an end where Covid is managed more like flu: we repeatedly vaccinate, we update the vaccines according to mutations and we manage the challenges, especially around transmissions over winter.
‘I’m confident that’s where we can get to. I want to get to a position where we can have an updated vaccine in weeks or months, not a year.’
It comes as Mr Johnson tries to push through an extension of lockdown laws until the autumn, despite restrictions officially ending in June.
A hardcore of as many as 60 Conservative MPs is expected to rebel against Government plans to extend emergency powers to the end of September.
Politicians in the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) blasted the ‘significant draconian powers’ and questioned the need for them to be in place if the UK has returned to relative normal.
However, any Tory rebellion is almost certain to fail to impede the legislation, with Labour planning to back it in this evening’s Commons vote.
CRG leader Mark Harper, who believes plans to ease the lockdown ‘could safely go more quickly’, told Sky News: ‘The biggest problem today is the extension of some very significant draconian powers in the Coronavirus Act which the Government doesn’t want to extend until June, it actually wants to extend all the way into October.
‘And these are quite significant powers; they are powers, for example, for the police to detain people indefinitely and to continue having powers to shutdown events and so forth all the way through to October.
‘And I haven’t heard a single good answer about why the Government wishes to do that, given that the Prime Minister has said he wants to be out of all of our legal restrictions by June.’
The legislation for restrictions over the coming months, as the Government sets out its road map for coming out of lockdown, will see some restrictions remain in place in England until at least June 21.
There are also question marks over summer holidays taking place after that date, amid a third wave of Covid infections in mainland Europe.
But Conservative MP Steve Baker, deputy chairman of the CRG, said the vote was a ‘rare opportunity’ for MPs to ‘say no to a new way of life in a checkpoint society’.
‘I was glad to hear the Prime Minister reassure William Wragg MP at the Liaison Committee today that ‘anything that is redundant will go’ in relation to Coronavirus Act powers,’ the former minister said last night.
‘Draconian police powers under Schedule 21, which have a 100 per cent unlawful prosecution record, must be considered ‘redundant’ to say the very least.
‘I am seeking to table an amendment to the motion tomorrow asking ministers to suspend those powers. I now hope the Government can support it.’