Coronavirus UK: Britain’s Covid R rate goes UP for first time since January but is still below 1

Britian’s Covid R rate has ticked upwards but is still below one, experts said today, as a raft of official data showed cases are still falling and a top scientist called for lockdown curbs to be eased sooner.

Sage experts said the rate – which estimates the spread of the virus – is now between 0.7 to 0.9, marking the first rise since January but still showing the second wave is shrinking. For comparison, last week they said it was between 0.6 and 0.9. 

Separate figures from the ONS showed England’s outbreak shrank by a third in just a single week at the end of February, as the total number of people carrying the virus plunged 34 per cent from 374,000 to 248,000 in the seven-day spell ending February 26. 

And further data from a symptom-tracking app showed that the number of people getting infected each day is dropping again, after levelling off last month.

Combined, the two reports suggest around one in every 220 people is carrying the coronavirus in England, and that 6,595 are developing Covid symptoms each day. Both are down significantly on last week’s figures. 

Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist behind the symptom app, revealed he hoped lockdown could be eased ‘earlier’, piling extra pressure on Boris Johnson to relax restrictions sooner. Under Number 10’s current roadmap back to normality, England won’t be freed from lockdown until June 21, at the earliest. 

The findings add to data from Public Health England yesterday that showed positive tests for the virus are still tumbling in all regions, age groups and local authorities, with only two parts of the country seeing cases rise last week – Hull and Wokingham.

A separate mass-testing survey, REACT by Imperial College London, found that the shrinking of the outbreak has slowed dramatically since January but it is still getting smaller. Experts say the cold weather in February may have helped the virus spread and put the brakes on the shrinking epidemic. 

Professor Spector said: ‘After reporting a flattening last week, possibly related to the cold snap, and with worries of new variants, we are pleased to see numbers falling again. 

‘It’s even more encouraging when we look at the bigger picture. Cases in hospital and deaths continue to fall, and vaccinations rise, putting us in a good position. 

‘However, we still need to keep numbers low and avoid further waves of infections.

‘Our app shows people are still getting infected within two weeks after vaccination when they have zero protection. 

‘With schools opening, we still need to be sensible to keep the good news flowing as we slowly return to normal life and hopefully ease lockdown earlier.’

The Symptom Study said that 6,595 of the daily infections were happening in England, with 851 in Scotland, 395 in Wales and 270 in Northern Ireland.

Worst-affected in England is the North West region, it found, with around 1,133 new symptomatic cases per day, while the lowest rate was in the South West, with 434 per day.

The R rate, measuring the number of people infected by each person with the virus, is ‘close to 1’, the study said, with it at 0.9 in most places and 1.0 in others. An R of 1 means the outbreak is neither growing nor shrinking.

SAGE will publish an updated official estimate of the R rate later today. Last week it was thought to be somewhere between 0.6 and 0.9. 

The ONS report estimated that the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England had declined from 0.69 per cent in the week to February 19, to 0.45 per cent last week.

All of the population is included in this estimate, whether they have symptoms or not, and it was calculated using the results of swab tests provided by more than 150,000 people dotted around the country.

This is considered a more reliable method than the Covid Symptom Study, which uses data on self-reported symptoms provided by its one million app users, but the ONS does not provide estimates of new daily cases.

The ONS said: ‘The percentage of people testing positive has decreased in all regions except for the North East, East Midlands and East of England where the trend is uncertain in the week ending 27 February 2021.

‘Caution should be taken in over-interpreting any small movements in the latest trend.’

Graphs showed that the rate of people testing positive is still coming down in all age groups, although less steeply among school children and the over-70s.

The ZOE and King’s College data back up a report from PHE yesterday that confirmed the numbers of cases being picked up by the official testing programme is still coming down.

It showed that positive tests done through NHS Test and Trace have now been falling in every region and age group for seven weeks in a row. 

The weekly report showed cases are in free-fall across the country and only two out of 149 local authorities recorded an increase last week – Hull and Wokingham.

PHE’s report found that there was a decline in cases in almost all counties and districts in the most recent week, to February 28, with three areas seeing their infection numbers drop by half – Torbay in Devon, Rutland in the East Midlands, and the Isle of Wight. 

And all age groups saw the case numbers come down again, for the seventh week in a row with consistent declines since the second week of January, tumbling from staggering heights at the end of 2020.

Regionally, infections are down consistently again, too, with the lowest rates in the South East and South West, as well as in London and the East of England. 

Cases are around twice as high in the northern and Midlands regions but are still declining, the report showed.