Britain’s coronavirus R rate has fallen again, official data revealed today, as separate estimates showed cases have fallen in England by nearly 50 per cent in a fortnight.
Sage scientists said the figure – which measures the spread of the disease – is between 0.6 and 0.9 for the UK, with cases falling by between three and six per cent a day. It also remained below the crucial threshold of one, indicating the second wave is still shrinking.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data estimated 481,300 people in the nation would test positive for Covid-19 on any given day in the week to February 12, the equivalent of 1 in 115 people. This was 30 per cent below the levels the same time last week, and 43 per cent below two weeks ago when there were 846,900 cases.
For comparison, it was also 60 per cent less than in the darkest days of January at the peak of the second wave when there were estimated to be 1.2million cases.
But separate data from a symptom-tracking app today warned Covid cases may have stopped plummeting across the country and could be plateauing. They estimated there 14,064 symptomatic infections every day in the week to February 14, barely a five per cent drop from the seven-day spell before.
The ONS also estimated infections were still falling in every age group and were lowest among the over-70s, who are most at risk of hospitalisation or re-infection if they catch the virus. It was not clear if this was due to the rollout, but a top scientist said today they were seeing the first signs of its impact on the age group in Bristol.
Those aged between seven and 11 had the second lowest rates of infection in the country, the ONS also said.
Their report is taken as the gold-standard by ministers, because its estimates are based on random swabbing of more than 100,000 Britons across the country which can pick up asymptomatic infections, thought to account for at least a third of infections, that are missed by the national testing system.
The figures will pile more pressure on Boris Johnson to start easing lockdown restrictions, after top scientists this week said the data was ‘pointing in the right direction’ to relax some measures and warned the value of a lockdown halves every two weeks.
Britain’s Covid cases plunged during the first six weeks of the lockdowns imposed in January, after infections spiralled out of control over the Christmas period amid the emergence of the more infectious Kent variant.
And yesterday were revealed to have tumbled to the lowest levels since September among school-age children, and to have dropped in 147 of 149 English local authorities – 98 per cent – in the second week of February.
But there are now early signs the nosedive is starting to slow, with the Department of Health recording a 2.3 per cent drop in infections last Wednesday compared to the week before.
The Prime Minister is set to iron out his ‘roadmap’ for exiting lockdown on Monday, which is set to make pubs and restaurants the last to reopen.
It comes as NHS hospitals were found to be treating fewer coronavirus patients than they were during the darkest days of the first wave, official figures have revealed.
Department of Health data shows 20,156 beds were taken up by Covid-infected Brits on February 16, the most recent day figures are available for. For comparison, there were more than 21,000 coronavirus patients needing hospital treatment on the worst days of the original outbreak last April.
The ONS infection survey estimated 481,300 people in England would have tested positive for the virus on any given day in the week to February 12, a dip of 30 per cent compared to the same time last week
But separate data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app suggested cases have plateaued. It said there were 14,064 new infections a day in the UK in the second week of February, a drop of just five per cent compared to the last seven-day spell. Their app can only pick up symptomatic infections, and not those with no warning signs thought to account for at least a third of all cases
The ONS also showed Covid infections had dropped in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland compared to the previous week
And every region in England was also seeing infections continuing to fall in the week to February 12
Infections are now lowest among those aged over 70. But it is not clear whether this is due to the vaccine, with scientists saying they are only starting to see early signs of the jabs ‘doing their job’ in some areas
The ZOE Covid symptom study app said cases had plateaued compared to last week. Its estimate is based on reports from more than a million Britons on whether they feel unwell and have had a Covid test
They said infections had risen slightly among 20 to 39 year olds, but were still falling among the over 60s
Public Health England data published yesterday revealed Covid cases had plunged in all but two regions of England in the second week of February. They only rose in Tameside, Greater Manchester, and North East Lincolnshire
The ONS data showed the total number of infections in England are now at their lowest levels since mid-November, when the second national lockdown was imposed to curb infections.
Estimates for infections in the devolved nations showed there were 24,600 Covid cases in Wales – 1 in 125 people having the virus -, around 17,800 in Northern Ireland – 1 in 105 – and 29,200 in Scotland – 1 in 180.
The report also revealed that the mutant Kent variant of the virus remains the dominant strain in every region of England, and across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The ONS weekly report is considered a highly reliable estimate of infections in the UK because it can pick up asymptomatic cases and account for Britons who do not want to be tested for fear of having to self-isolate.
Top Sage advisers have warned the UK needs to get its Covid case levels down to just 10,000 infections before Boris Johnson should begin to reopen society.
Amid the promising statistics, however, the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app, also published today, warned the second wave may have started to plateau across the UK.
It added the R rate – measuring the spread of the disease – may have risen to 1 in Yorkshire, the East Midlands and the North East as well as as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, suggesting the second wave is no longer shrinking in these areas.
They estimated the areas with the highest infection rates were Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen where 1 in 277 residents was thought to have the virus. They were followed by Greater Manchester, with 1 in 287 and the Liverpool City region with 1 in 337.
The app relies on daily reports from more than a million Britons on whether they are feeling unwell, and whether they have tested positive for the virus. But it is only able to pick up infections that are symptomatic, and cannot detect those that don’t trigger warning signs – thought to be at least a third of all cases.
Professor Tim Spector, a top epidemiologist who leads the app, said the fall in infections has begun to ‘plateau’ compared to the last six weeks where it plummeted.
‘This is mainly true in places like Scotland, Wales, and the Midlands compared to London and the East,’ he said. ‘It’s unclear why this is happening, although people relaxing their guard after vaccination or altering behaviour in the cold weather are possible.
‘But it’s encouraging that Covid-related hospital admissions are still falling and much lower than at the peak. With cases still falling in the at-risk age groups and the vaccination roll out continuing there is still reason to be hopeful – but we clearly can’t be complacent.’
The King’s College London scientist also called on the NHS to expand its list of Covid symptoms – high temperature, continuous cough and loss of taste and smell – to ensure that as many cases are detected as possible.
At present, only those suffering the three key warning signs are encouraged to get a test. But mountains of research has shown the virus can trigger many other symptoms in the early stages, including fatigue, diarrhoea and a sore or white tongue.
‘We are pushing for the list to be expanded to help us pick up more cases and drive down the number of cases,’ he said. ‘It’s also important for any new variants that may cause different symptoms. For us, the message for the public is clear: If you’re feeling newly unwell, it could be Covid and you should get a test.’
It comes as data from the Department of Health shows the number of Covid patients in hospital has nearly halved since January. Almost 40,000 beds were taken up by the infected during the peak of the second wave last month.
And the number of patients on ventilation beds has also plunged by 36 per cent in a month.
Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, told The Times that the country was at a ‘critical juncture’, with hospital staff ‘exhausted.
She urged Boris Johnson to wait for ‘a return to more normal levels of NHS capacity’ before lifting restrictions.
She said: ‘Lessons must be learnt from the past year if this is to be the last national lockdown.’
Some 2,614 patients requiring intensive care on mechanical ventilation beds on Wednesday, compared to 4,077 on January 25.
Public Health England’s data yesterday showed the infection rate among children aged 10 to 19 was at 86.2 per 100,000 in the second week of February, the latest available.
This is below every week since the seven-day spell ending September 26, when it was 53.4 per 100,000.
Public Health England’s medical director Yvonne Doyle said: ‘Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling.
‘The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning.
‘This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures. Although it is difficult, we must continue to stay home and protect lives.’
Covid cases also dropped in every age group and plunged by 38 per cent among the over-80s – who are most at risk of being hospitalised or dying if they catch the virus – to 129.6 per 100,000.
The infection rate was highest in 30 to 39-year-olds (192.5 per 100,000), followed by 20 to 29-year-olds (173.4 per 100,000) and 40 to 49-year-olds (162.9 per 100,000).