Lockdown restrictions in Tier 2 cut the spread of Covid-10 by just 2%, study shows

Tier Two restrictions in England in the autumn only cut the reproduction rate of Covid-19 by 2 per cent, a study found.

However, the R rate was slashed by 10 per cent by Tier Three measures.

Researchers estimated the effect of the October tier system on the R-rate before the second national lockdown in England on November 5.

The experts said Northern Ireland’s lockdown cut the R-rate by 35 per cent. And the lockdown in Wales reduced it by 44 per cent. 

The study, led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, also estimated an extra 58,500 deaths in England by the end of March 2021 if no lockdown or tiered restrictions were enacted.

It said a four-week lockdown without school closures, like the one implemented in England in November, may have reduced extra deaths to 36,800. 

If schools had been closed during this period, deaths may have been reduced to 30,300.

The estimates were made based on data available up to November 10.

The authors concluded that the four-week lockdown in November reduced pressure on the health service and was ‘well-timed’ to suppress deaths over the winter.

They added that more stringent interventions could reduce deaths and hospital pressure further, but needed to be weighed against social and economic costs.

The study was published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal.  

Roughly 60 per cent of the country is now in a Tier 3 or 4 area, meaning the rest of England is in Tier 1 or 2.

Some areas which are currently in Tier 2 include the City of York, Devon, Bristol, Cumbria and Brighton and Hove.