SAGE can’t decide on Christmas: No10’s scientists say mixing with relatives will spread Covid but closing schools and offices will bring cases DOWN (and admits it doesn’t know whether relaxing restrictions will cause outbreak to spiral)
- Coronavirus might spread to older people, leading to more hospital patients
- But total number of cases could fall as people stop working or going to school
The Government’s top scientific advisers can’t decide on how relaxing social distancing at Christmas will affect coronavirus cases.
In a meeting on December 2 SAGE experts admitted they are ‘highly uncertain’ about what will happen after next weekend.
Boris Johnson this week urged people not to socialise with friends and families at Christmas but stopped short of changing official guidance that says they can, with up to three households allowed to mix indoors between December 23 and 27.
There are fears that family reunions will see thousands of people spread the virus to their parents and grandparents and lead to a surge in Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths in the new year.
But SAGE also said that the closure of schools and offices over the festive period will lead to a fall in infections that would normally be caught in those places.
Some of the highest infection rates in the second wave have been among children and teenagers, with around one in 50 of them thought to be carrying the virus last week. And they will now mostly be at home for the next two to three weeks.
SAGE files released today also showed that the advisers are in favour of using rapid swab tests to shorten the time people need to self-isolate, suggested the tests could be used before Christmas to reduce infection risk, and said accurate vaccination statistics should be made ‘widely available’.
In a report from SAGE’s December 2 meeting the advisers wrote: ‘The outcome of relaxation over the festive period remains highly uncertain.
‘The rules in place would greatly restrict mixing compared to most years; if adherence to these restrictions is high then it is highly unlikely that the prevalence will double.’
The Government this week came close to rowing back on its plan to allow families and friends to mix at Christmas – something that has hardly been allowed all year – but Mr Johnson settled on urging people to ‘keep it small’.
More than half of the UK population is now living under the strictest local lockdown rules as cases and hospital admissions continue to climb across the country.
Although there are fears that the Christmas relaxation period will be risky, the Government’s top scientists don’t seem to agree on whether cases will rise or fall, overall.
They said it was likely that infections among older people would rise because of socialising, but admitted they might fall in younger age groups who will move in smaller circles than if they were at work or school.
The report said: ‘There is significant uncertainty as to how people’s behaviour will change over the holidays.
This, combined with the situation at the point of entering the time between 23rd and 27th December, will affect prevalence going into 2021.
‘With schools and many workplaces closed, transmission in these settings and their associated age groups is likely to fall, but may be replaced by riskier interactions in other, social settings with older, more vulnerable individuals and consequently lead to more severe cases of disease.’
It added that ‘transmission to elderly and more vulnerable people might increase the incidence of disease more than the incidence of infection,’ and said there would likely be ‘a slight shift towards a higher proportion of cases in older and more vulnerable age groups’.