The number of people with coronavirus in England has fallen for the first time in three months, official data revealed today.
Mass testing by the Office for National Statistics suggests 633,000 people – 1.16 per cent of the population, or one in every 85 people – is carrying the virus and it said the outbreak was ‘levelling off’.
Estimated using tests done up until last Saturday, November 21, the number takes into account the effects of two weeks of lockdown and has declined for the first time since September.
The last time the country’s outbreak shrank was at the end of summer, in the week that ended August 25, when the predicted number of infections fell from 28,200 to 27,100 – it has risen constantly since then during the second wave and is now 23 times higher than it was before schools and universities went back.
A lab error, however, means the ONS cannot estimate how many people are catching the virus each day.
The statisticians usually publish the number weekly and last Friday said there were 38,900 daily cases in the week to November 14. This had fallen by 10,000 a day from 47,700 a week earlier, and another decline was expected this week as the effects of the second lockdown filter through into statistics.
ONS data, considered to be the most accurate picture of England’s outbreak, were published a day early as the Department of Health prepares to announce which areas will face tough local lockdowns when the national rules are lifted next week.
The East Midlands, which includes Leicester, Derby, Peterborough and Nottingham, was the only part of England to see its outbreak grow in the most recent week. Infection rates fell in every other region.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock will speak in the House of Commons this morning as the country holds its breath in hopes of extra freedom in the run-up to Christmas. Which areas will face which levels of social distancing rules from next Thursday will be confirmed within hours.
‘In recent weeks, the positivity rate in England has shown signs of levelling,’ the report said.
It shows, however, that there are still big differences in infection rates across the country and they are still high in much of the North.
Three times as many people are thought to be infected in Yorkshire and the Humber than in the East of England, which had, respectively, infection rates of 1.9 per cent – one in every 53 people – and 0.6 per cent – one in 167.
North West, North East, East Midlands and West Midlands all have higher infection rates than the England average, which was around 1.2 per cent.
London, the South East and the South West all had lower than average rates, alongside the East of the country.
The percentage of people thought to be carrying the virus rose only in the East Midlands last week, while falling in all other places.
Infections also went down in all but one age group, the data show, with the spread of the virus increasing again among teenagers.
‘Over the last week, increases in the positivity rate can only be seen in secondary school-age children and positivity rates have decreased in adults aged 35 years and over,’ the report said.
‘It appears that rates among the youngest age group as well as those aged school year 12 to age 24 years and 25 to 34 years are levelling off; rates remain highest among secondary school-age children and young adults.’
This week’s infection survey is based on the results of 202,607 swab tests done in the previous fortnight, of which 2,659 returned positive results from 2,440 people.
The data usually provide an estimate of how many people are getting infected with coronavirus each day, but this week did not do so.
By way of explanation the ONS said: ‘This week, there have been some issues with the data from one of the laboratories, which has introduced greater uncertainty…
‘Because of the significant amount of quality assurance conducted for estimates of positivity rates, we have not been able to include incidence data this week but it will be available next week as normal.’
It said there was a problem with tests that were being processed at the laboratory in Milton Keynes, which is one of the biggest in the country.
Tests going through that lab, the ONS said, had been taken out of the results because the percentage of them which were positive ‘increased very substantially and abnormally’ after technicians reported contamination of the chemicals used during the process. The results from those tests would be reviewed, the researchers said.
Although removing the wrong test results had a ‘negligible result’ on the published data, the ONS said, the impact may have been larger on the daily cases number because it is so much lower and vulnerable to hiccups.
