Of all the conundrums thrown up during this pandemic, the disparity in cases between the North and South of England remains the most perplexing.
According to the latest data, more than two-thirds of this country’s coronavirus hospitalisations are in the North West, North East and Yorkshire.
But why is the North experiencing more of a surge than the South? JOHN NAISH assesses six potential causes…
HEALTH DIVIDE
As with any virus, those who suffer from chronic health conditions are more likely to be susceptible to the ravages of Covid-19.
In fact, people with heart disease and diabetes who are infected are six times more likely to be hospitalised. One recent study by the US government even suggested they are 12 times more likely to die.
Crucially, the North of England is in much poorer health than the South. Parliamentary statistics show that diabetes rates in the North West, North East and East Midlands are almost a fifth higher than in the South East.
Rates of obesity are also comparatively higher in the North. The North is therefore a fertile ground for the virus to wreak havoc.
MORE POVERTY
Throughout this pandemic, Public Health England has reiterated that people living in deprived areas ‘have higher diagnosis rates and death rates’.
This is backed up by Office for National Statistics figures which suggest people living in the poorest areas – notably Birmingham and the North of England – have been twice as likely to die from Covid-19 as those in less deprived areas such as Surrey. But what is it about poverty that makes a person more vulnerable to Covid? There isn’t one definitive answer.
On a practical level, however, it means you’re less likely to have access to decent healthcare and extensive opportunities to exercise – while the stress and depression often caused by living hand-to-mouth can also damage your physical health. More broadly, it also means you’re more likely to be susceptible to a number of the other factors outlined on this page.
MULTIGENERATIONAL HOMES
Homes in the North are more likely to contain multiple generations of family. And with young and old constantly mixing, it makes it far more tricky for the elderly – who are more vulnerable to Covid-19 – to shield from it.
The prevalence of multigenerational homes in the North is partly due to its concentrated populations of ethnic groups (predominantly Asian families), among whom living together is seen as more of a cultural norm.
Asian families are far more likely than white British people to live in multigenerational households, according to housebuilding research group, The NHBC Foundation.
ETHNIC DIVIDE
Linking many of these potential elements is the fact that the Midlands and the North contain a significant number of concentrated minority ethnic communities, such as in Birmingham and Manchester.
This is particularly pertinent given that a study published last month in the Journal of Public Health concluded that those from Black, Asian and minority ethnic groups who tested positive for Covid-19 were more likely to be overweight and living in poverty – both of which mean these communities were predisposed to the worst of Covid-19.
They are also more likely to live in overcrowded houses, many of which became infected overnight.
Indeed, data published last month by the Government revealed that the households with the highest rates of overcrowding in England were Bangladeshi (24 per cent), Pakistani (18 per cent) and Black African (16 per cent). To put that in perspective, just 2 per cent of White British Households were overcrowded.
YOUTH
The virus’s Northern resurgence broadly appears to have been driven by infections among younger adults. That’s the conclusion of one study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal this week which claimed that most new infections identified in the second half of August were in people in their twenties.
This could be because young people are less likely to display symptoms from Covid1-9, so unwittingly pass it on. Whatever the truth, when you look at the demographic data, many of the largest twenty-something populations are in the North.
In fact, five of the top six English cities with districts with the lowest average age are in the North and Midlands: Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield and Manchester. Much of this can be explained by their large student populations.
It should be noted that, for the same reason, university cities in the South are also seeing a spike in Covid-19 cases. For example, Brighton – home to two universities – has seen its number of weekly cases triple.
Typical blue-collar jobs found in the North, such as those in industrial production, require staff to be on site (stock image)
WORKING FROM HOME?
There’s little doubt working from home proved an effective measure in preventing virus transmission during lockdown. But while employees in the South have continued to be able to avoid commuting and crowded offices, many in the North have had to return to their workplaces.
Indeed, data from Google Mobility, which tracks the locations of people’s smartphones, suggests London has seen fewer people returning to workplaces than the rest of the country.
This is partly because unlike white-collar jobs in London and the South, many of which can be done from home, typical blue-collar jobs found in the North, such as those in industrial production, require staff to be on site.
With many in the North and Midlands travelling between work and home, chances of the virus spreading are greatly increased.