The SAGE files: Government coronavirus reports reveal scientists said the UK’s outbreak will rumble on into 2021, banning sporting events has ‘imperceptible’ impact on infections and ‘bubbles’ of two households of any size could be next step
- A further 40 Government documents were released today by chief scientist
- They show SAGE was told social distancing must continue for at least a year
- Government’s original ‘mitigation’ plan was based on deadly herd immunity
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
Scientific reports presented to the Government have revealed that the UK’s Covid-19 will likely trundle on well into 2021 and social distancing must continue.
They also showed that scientists told officials banning people from going to large sporting events has an ‘imperceptible’ effect on the number of cases.
And the next step for social ‘bubbling’, currently allowed between a household of one-person and another home, could be to allow two houses of any size to join.
Some 40 documents were today published by the Government Office for Science, which is headed by Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser.
They are among dozens in a tranche of papers presented to SAGE, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, over recent months.
And the reports detail all the scientific advice which is being presented to decision-making officials who dictate when and how the country moves out of lockdown.
Files released today revealed scientists told the Government:
- Schools should be closed for eight to 12 weeks for maximum effect and could flatten the peak of the crisis by 40 per cent, but only if timed right;
- Even a full lockdown could still have led to 290,000 deaths, scientists predicted at the beginning of March;
- Banning people from going to large sporting events has an ‘imperceptible impact’ on the transmission of the coronavirus;
- The epidemic is likely to continue for a year or more because the UK’s society and economy could not cope with a lockdown tough enough to stop it dead;
- The Government’s original ‘mitigate’ plan was based on developing herd immunity – which Downing Street insists it wasn’t – and it wouldn’t have worked;
- World Health Organization warned social distancing ‘interventions’ must remain in place until at least 2021 to stop a resurgence of the virus;
- Social bubbles could soon be extended to include two households of any size, and then two any-size families with a single household as a third member.
A model presented to the Government in March showed that social distancing and lockdown measures may have to stay in place for more than a year (shown on bottom axis, more than 300 days) to stop Britain’s outbreak from spiralling out of control
More to follow.