The UK’s coronavirus splits deepened today as Nicola Sturgeon dismissed calls to ease the two-metre social distancing rule.
The Scottish First Minister said scientific advice was that the limit should stay for now, warning that the places where reducing it might help business could also be the riskiest for fuelling the outbreak.
The stance came despite Ms Sturgeon revealing that the R number has dipped to between 0.6 and 0.8 in Scotland, and a huge push for a relaxation in England, with Rishi Sunak leading Cabinet pressure on Boris Johnson to loosen the stranglehold on the economy.
Addressing Tory MPs last night, Mr Sunak highlighted warnings from business about the dire consequences of the restrictions, and pointed out dozens of countries have already relaxed it to one metre.
He said he was ‘sympathetic’ to concerns that sectors of the economy cannot get up and running until the situation changes.
There are growing signs that the PM is preparing to shift on the crucial issue in the coming week, with Downing Street sources saying he ‘instinctively’ wants to free up business but fears a second peak. Achieving Mr Johnson’s goal of getting schools fully back by September appears impossible unless there is a rethink.
The CBI said today that halving the distance to one metre would be ‘transformational’ and allow firms to double their level of activity.
At her daily briefing in Edinburgh today, Nicola Sturgeon said scientific advice was that the two-metre limit should stay for now
Chancellor Rishi Sunak (pictured visiting a John Lewis store in London yesterday) indicated his support for loosening the guidelines as he answered questions from Conservative MPs last night
MPs and businesses warn that keeping the restriction in place could sink tens of thousands of businesses and cost millions of jobs.
Campaigners say it stops schools reopening properly while pubs and restaurants fear going bust.
Trade bodies such as UK Hospitality and the British Beer & Pubs Association have warned that closures and job losses escalate dramatically depending on whether the distance is one metre, 1.5 metres or two metres.
CBI chief Carolyn Fairbairn told Sky News today that the reduction would be the difference between survival and collapse for many firms.
‘A change from two metres to a shorter distance would be transformational to the ability of businesses to open and be productive,’ she said.
‘At two metres the capacity of many businesses is around about 20-30 per cent.
‘At one metre it is more like 60-70 per cent, simply because of the constraints that social distancing creates on businesses to open in hospitality, retail and manufacturing.’
The World Health Organisation recommends a one-metre restriction – guidance followed by countries such as France, Denmark and Singapore.
However, most of the Westminster government’s scientific advisers are thought to want to stick to two metres until infections fall further.
And Ms Sturgeon, who has devolved responsibilities in Scotland, made clear she is not currently intending to change the rule, even though the R number has fallen back slightly.
‘Right now the advice given to me is that we should not change two metres,’ she said.
The First Minister stressed at her daily briefing in Edinburgh that it was not an ‘absolute discussion’ and there was ‘relative’ risks rather than a right answer.
‘It is the case that there is greater risk of transmission at one metre than there is at two metres. This is about relative risk,’ she said.
Ms Sturgeon said there might have to be more rules on face coverings, or people being allowed to stay close together for a shorter period.
‘It is often a trade off. If you go for a shorter distance there are other things you would need to do potentially to mitigate that,’ she said.
She added that the areas that could benefit most from an easing would be the highest risk for spread.
‘Some of the emerging evidence about how and where this virus most transmits…. the evidence around superspreading events or settings, clusters of this virus, could suggest that thekind of settings where reducing two metres might deliver practical benefits may also be the kind of settings in which the risk of transmission is greater,’ she said.
Mr Sunak held a 90 minute session with the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers yesterday where he is said to have backed calls to slash the two-metre rule. He warned that 3.5million jobs could be lost unless people start going back to shops.
Former Tory Cabinet minister Damian Green insisted other countries had managed safely with one metre.
‘I would combine it with much greater mask-wearing,’ he said. ‘If we don’t do this it will be the end for many pubs and restaurants.’
Iain Duncan Smith, a former Tory leader, said: ‘The number one and single most important priority to unlock the economy is getting the distance down to one metre.
‘The difference between one and two metres is the difference between opening the economy properly and seeing it bump along at the bottom without being able to bounce back. The hospitality sector simply can’t make a living at two metres.
‘It’s restrictive at one metre but at least they can come close to making it work. And it’s impossible to run public transport properly at two metres.’
Anger has been growing on the Conservative benches at Mr Johnson, with one MP branding his leadership ‘pitiful’.
Researchers found there was roughly a 1.3 per cent chance of contracting the virus when two metres from an infected patient. But halving this gap raised the risk to only 2.6 per cent. This means the disease would spread to fewer than three in 100 people, against 13 in 100 without any social distancing at all. That equates to an 80 per cent reduction in risk
A Tory source told MailOnline gloomily: ”’Oh dear” is pretty much our approach to government at the moment.’
In a round of interviews this morning, Local government minister Simon Clarke admitted the social distancing decisions were ‘challenging’.
‘We are at the two-metre point now. That’s what the best available guidance supports,’ he said.
‘Obviously, we continue to keep this under active review.
‘We all recognise how limiting two metres is. We are not blind to the very severe challenges it poses. Not just for schools, but for the wider economy.’
He added: ‘We are trying to act on the basis of the best available guidance that we get, and that this is intrinsically a very challenging decision for us to make.
‘We do need to be confident before we make any such announcement that it is the right thing at the right time.’
The British Retail Consortium said many shops would be unable to make money under a two-metre rule, while the British Coffee Association said one metre would make operations for coffee shops ‘more manageable’.
There are signs Boris Johnson is preparing to shift on the crucial issue, with Downing Street sources saying he ‘instinctively’ wants to free up business but fears a second peak
Professor Robert Dingwall, a leading member of the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said: ‘I have been arguing for several weeks in support of reducing the physical distancing requirements from two metres to one metre.
‘There is good evidence from the physical sciences that any difference in risk between these distances is minimal – and that one metre still leaves a safety margin.
‘Indeed there are situations in which it could probably safely be reduced if contacts are relatively brief or indirect.
‘Moving to one metre would allow four times as many people into any given space, contributing greatly to the re-opening of schools and the general revival of economic activity.’
Campaigners have warned that delay in relaxing the limit could thwart Mr Johnson’s drive to reopen schools fully by September.
The more schools that open, the more parents would be able to go out to work.