Coronavirus lockdowns may have prevented 3million deaths in Europe — including half a million the UK alone, a study has suggested.
Imperial College London researchers tracked outbreaks in 11 European countries to estimate how effective strict social distancing measures have been.
Up to four per cent of people across the nations had caught the disease up to May 4 — the equivalent of between 12 and 15million cases.
And the experts noted how almost 130,000 deaths had occurred by the same date, giving a rough case-fatality ratio of between 0.87 and 1.08 per cent.
But the study calculated the toll may have been up to 24 times worse — in the region of 3.2million deaths — if nothing was done to control the outbreak.
The UK, Germany, Spain, France and Italy each dodged up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths or more because of their draconian policies, the team estimated.
A separate study also published today suggested around 500million Covid-19 cases were prevented by lockdowns in six countries, including the US.
Coronavirus lockdowns may have prevented 3million deaths in Europe — including half a million the UK alone, a study has suggested. The graphic shows how many deaths have occurred in each country up until early May, and how many estimated deaths have been avoided. THe most deaths avoided were in France (690,000)
UK: The number of daily infections estimated by Imperial’s model drops immediately after an intervention – including the lockdown on March 23. The researchers assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious
How each intervention reduced the R number in the UK over time (green bar). It shows it dropped dramatically on March 23, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered everyone to stay at home for the forseeable furture
Social distancing, staying indoors and refraining from seeing family and friends has become the standard way of life for every Brit since March.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the UK would go into lockdown on March 23, becoming one of the last European countries to do so.
Lockdowns are hugely controversial because of the unprecedented economic back-lash they have caused, crippling economics and threatening huge job losses.
But evidence is beginning to prove they have worked to prevent thousands of deaths – despite some experts questioning whether they were ever necessary.
But researchers say they had a ‘substantial effect’ in curbing the pandemic, slashing the R rate — a measurement of how a disease spreads — by 82 per cent.
The Imperial researchers were led by Dr Seth Flaxman and included Professor Neil Ferguson, also dubbed as ‘Professor Lockdown’.
His grim warning that 500,000 Brits could die without action formed a key part in convincing Number 10 to impose the lockdown in the first place.
ITALY: Infections dropped when social distancing was encouraged from March 9, and continued to fall as the lockdown was introduced on March 11
How interventions reduced the R number in the Italy over time (green bar)
But he stepped down from Sage last month after he was found to have flouted the strict rules to have secret trysts with his married mistress.
Coronavirus data was analysed for 11 countries: The UK, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
The model, published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature, calculated the size of the pandemic by working backwards.
Dr Flaxman and colleagues looked at the number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths to estimate how many people had ever been infected.
The team then compared the deaths predicted under a model with no interventions to the deaths that actually occurred up until May 4.
France was estimated to have avoided the most Covid-19 deaths of around 690,000. Instead, it had suffered around 23,000 fatalities up until May 4.
Second was Italy, avoiding 630,000 deaths, Germany 560,000, the UK 470,000 and Spain 450,000.
On the other end of the spectrum, Norway has avoided a lower 12,000 deaths, which is still 57 times higher than its actual death count of 210.
Limiting the spread of movement between people is thought to have squashed the R rate by more than three quarters, compared to if nothing had been done.
Its natural R rate — the average number of people one person infects — was pinned as 3.8 in this study, meaning every Covid-19 case leads to almost four more.
But by early may, the predictions suggest it dropped to below 1 across the 11 nations at 0.66. And it was said to be as low as 0.44 in Norway.
The paper says: ‘Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.’
France: How infections reduced dramatically from March 16 and 17 – when social distancing was encouraged and then the lockdown was imposed
How interventions reduced the R number in the France over time (green bar)
Germany was estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates, with the team saying less than one per cent (0.85) of the country had been infected.
Belgium has the highest estimated coronavirus attack rate of eight per cent followed by Spain with 5.5 per cent.
And around 5.1 per cent of Britain — the equivalent of 3.4million people — have been infected, according to the calculations.
It suggests Europe is very far away from herd immunity — when at least 70 per cent of the population have already had the virus and it dies out naturally.
The team told MailOnline they did not specifically measure how many coronavirus cases had been avoided but said it was something they could work out.
And the academics also revealed they did not produce a case-fatality ratio (CFR), a measure that is sometimes referred to as the mortality rate.
But their own workings suggest the virus has a CFR of between 0.87 and 1.08, based on the estimated number of cases of between 12 and 15million.
This includes those who only had mild symptoms or none at all, which is why it is so high compared to the 2million cases formally reported in Europe.
The true scale of the pandemic is complete guesswork because not everyone who has caught the virus has shown symptoms or been tested.
This would suggest that, under the team’s maths that the lockdown prevented more than 3million deaths, up to 360million people could have been infected.
Dr Flaxman said: ‘We are just at the beginning of the epidemic. We are very far from herd immunity, with only between 3 and 4 per cent of the population infected.
‘The risk of a second wave happening, if all intervention and all precautions are abandoned, is very real.
‘We would all love to be able to go back to normal life pre-pandemic, with children back at school, being able to see loved ones whenever we want.’
But he added that the results suggest that the precautions, which have now been in force in the UK for ten weeks, ‘remain necessary’.
He said: ‘Claims that this is all over, that we’ve reached the herd immunity threshold can be firmly rejected by our estimates and by independent studies.
‘Our results closely match serological studies on the proportion of the population that has been infected. We are only at the beginning of this pandemic.’
Dr Samir Bhatt, also an author on the study, said: ‘This data suggests that without any interventions there could have been many more deaths from Covid-19.
‘The rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries we study.
‘Our analysis also suggests far more infections in these European countries than previously estimated.
‘Careful consideration should now be given to the continued measures that are needed to keep Sars-CoV-2 transmission under control.’
The study has some limitations, including that death data is recorded differently in each country and may be incomplete.
The number of estimated deaths without any action could be grossly overestimated because it doesn’t account for the R rate naturally decreasing.
However, it could also be an underestimation without considering what could have happened as a result of overwhelmed hospitals.
The publication of the research comes after Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted the Government made the ‘right decisions at the right time’ with the lockdown.
His comments come on the back of a leading scientist who sits on Sage saying lives would have been saved had ministers acted sooner.
Infectious diseases expert Professor John Edmunds told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show on Sunday: ‘We should have gone into lockdown earlier.
‘I think it would have been hard to do it, I think the data that we were dealing with in the early part of March and our kind of situational awareness was really quite poor.
Meanwhile, a second study from the University of California estimated half a billion cases have been prevented by lockdowns.
Researchers compiled the data from six countries, which were China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the US. The results were also published in Nature.
The paper warned: ‘In the absence of policy actions, we estimate early infections of Covid-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38 per cent per day.’
This implies cases would have doubled every two days had nothing been done — the result of which would have been ‘unimaginable’, the team warned.
Researchers say they found that unprecedented anti-contagion policies ‘significantly and substantially’ slowed this growth.
But some did not work as well as others. They did not find closing schools had any effect on infection rates.
Shutting down schools, banning large gatherings and stay-at-home orders prevented HALF A BILLION coronavirus cases worldwide and 60 million in the US, study finds
Half a billion infections of the novel coronavirus were prevented worldwide from lockdowns, a new study finds.
Researchers found that stay-at-home orders, business shutdowns and school closures prevented up to 60 million infections in the US alone.
Additionally, the guidelines helped avert 470 million more cases from cropping up across Asia and Europe.
Several American politicians argued that these shutdowns would wreck havoc on the economy, resulting in million of job losses and tanking stock markets.
But the team, from the University of California, Berkeley, says the findings show the policies were imperative to preventing the spread of the virus.
A new study found that school closures and lockdowns helped prevent 60 million more coronavirus infections in the US (anove)
Across five countries – China, South Korea, Iran, Italy and France – the policies prevented 470 million more cases (above)
It comes as second study from Imperial College London found that lockdowns prevented 3.1 millions deaths in Europe. Pictured: A woman crosses the empty of street Park Avenue in Manhattan, April 5
For the study, published in the journal Nature, the team looked at interventions such as school closures, stay at home orders and lockdowns in five countries.
They included China – where the virus originated – South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, and the US.
Researchers found that so-called ‘anti-contagion policies’ significantly helped reduce the number of coronavirus cases in each of the six counties.
In the US, such action prevented an addition 60 million people from contracting COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus.
‘In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38 [percent] per day,’ the authors wrote.
‘We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections.’
Results shows that if restrictions hadn’t been put in place, other countries would have also been hit much harder.
China would have seen 250 million more infections, South Korea would have seen 38 million more and Iran would have seen 54 million more.
In Europe, 49 million infections were prevented in Italy, and 45 million were prevented in France.
‘Societies around the world are weighing whether the health benefits of anti-contagion policies are worth their social and economic costs,’ the team wrote. T
It comes as second study from Imperial College London found that lockdowns prevented 3.1 millions deaths in Europe.
Also published in Nature, the team looked at data from 11 countries on the continent, including the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany, from March 2, 2020 to May 4, 2020.
They looked at how fatalities corresponded with non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns.
‘This data suggests that without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from COVID-19,’ said Dr Samir Bhatt, study author from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute at Imperial College London.
‘The rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries we study. Our analysis also suggests far more infections in these European countries than previously estimated.’