Funeral directors have been told to expect up to 85,000 extra deaths this summer if second Covid-19 spike hits
- Researchers carried out report for National Association of Funeral Directors
- If lockdown has been successful, 33,000 could still die in best case scenario
- Different parts of the UK could also be affected more than other regions
- Scotland, Wales and the North East could bear the brunt in second wave
- London, the East of England, Midlands and Northern Ireland would fare better
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
Funeral directors could see up to 85,000 extra deaths by the end of the summer if a second wave of Covid-19 hits after the easing of lockdown restrictions.
That stark prediction was the result of analysis commissioned by the National Association of Funeral Directors to predict what might happen in the coming months to the country’s mortality rate.
The modelling – carried out by Europe Economics – also suggested that 33,000 people could still die in the best case scenario, where lockdown proved to be effective and those with Covid-19 infected less than one person each.
This graph, commissioned by the National Association of Funeral Directors, shows predicted deaths post-lockdown from June to September in the UK in the event of a second wave
This graph shows predicted deaths post-lockdown from June to September in England
Different parts of the UK could also see a second wave bring more deaths in one area than another.
The research suggests that in a successful easing of lockdown, Scotland, Wales and the North East and Yorkshire would bear the impact of more deaths than in other regions.
In the worst case scenario, the north-west and south-west would be adversely affected, while London, the East of England, Midlands and Northern Ireland would fare much better.
Researchers were able to come up with the predictions by analysing two different views of the Infection Fatality Rate, one promoted by Oxford University, the Swedish government and Stanford University and the other by Imperial College London and others.
They also looked at the reporduction rate in different parts of the UK during lockdown and weekly deaths data from the four nations of the UK.
To date, there have been just over 34,000 confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the UK.
Commenting on the findings, Andrew Lilico, who led the team at Europe Economics, said: ‘Although a number of overall figures for expected final fatalities from COVID-19 are discussed in the press, that is of limited value to funeral directors who need to understand how many deaths there might be in their regions at particular dates, and about deaths from causes other than COVID-19.’
Jon Levett, chief executive of the NAFD, added: ‘What is striking about the modelling is that, based upon the most cautious model of how many Britons have already become infected, different parts of the UK and different regions within England would see significant second peaks with even a successful lifting of the lockdown.
‘If lockdown is lifted less successfully, the impact is even more striking, with the potential for those regions to see a second peak that is actually higher than the first.
The National Association of Funeral Directors commissioned the research to help the industry better prepare for the expected rise funerals in the event of a second Covid-19 wave
‘Funeral directors in many parts of the UK need to prepare themselves for a significant potential second peak in the death rate, should the government’s easing of lock down measures not go as well as they are hoping.
‘It is a further indication of just how volatile the situation remains and the importance of working together to get this right as a nation, be that as individuals, as organisations or as governments.’
The NAFD said it had repeatedly asked the Government to release modelling data on deaths so it can better prepare for the expected rise in demand for funerals.