Statistician estimates almost double government figure but adjusting for excess deaths

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The number of people in Britain who have died because of Covid-19 so far could be as high as 45,000, a data expert has today warned.

Statistician Jamie Jenkins says the figure reflects the difference in the number of people who have died since the pandemic began in Britain, compared to the average number of deaths during the same period over the last five years.

Latest government figures show that 27,510 people in Britain are known to have died from Covid-19 – up by 739 on the day before.

But the former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK’s stats authority suggests around 90 per cent of these ‘excess deaths’ could be related to Covid-19.

Using this data, around 42,000 people in England and Wales and 3,000 in Scotland could have died in ways related to Covid-19 between the start of the pandemic and April 29, he says.  

The number of people in Britain who have died because of Covid-19 so far could be as high as 45,000, data expert Jamie Jenkins has warned. Pictured: Mr Jenkins has been producing charts from the ONS statistics

The former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK's stats authority show there have been around 45,000 excess deaths in Great Britain since the pandemic began, compared to the five year average for the same period. Pictured: Mr Jenkins has been producing charts from the ONS statistics

The former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK’s stats authority show there have been around 45,000 excess deaths in Great Britain since the pandemic began, compared to the five year average for the same period. Pictured: Mr Jenkins has been producing charts from the ONS statistics

Using the data, around 42,000 people in England and Wales and 3,000 in Scotland could have died in ways related to Covid-19 between the start of the pandemic and April 29, Mr Jenkins says. Pictured: A chart showing the government's death and infection figures

Using the data, around 42,000 people in England and Wales and 3,000 in Scotland could have died in ways related to Covid-19 between the start of the pandemic and April 29, Mr Jenkins says. Pictured: A chart showing the government’s death and infection figures

Mr Jenkins, who has been posting daily chart updates on his Twitter account, said his analysis takes into other factors, including a lower number of road deaths due to the reduced traffic while the country is in lockdown.

He says the difference in the excess death figures and the government’s official Covid-19 death figures could be due explained by deaths in care homes and the community.

Initially government figures were solely those who died in hospital. But on Wednesday, the government added a further 4,000 deaths in care homes and the community.

Statistician Jamie Jenkins, a former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS), believes Covid-19 deaths in Britain could be as high as 45,000

Statistician Jamie Jenkins, a former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS), believes Covid-19 deaths in Britain could be as high as 45,000

Mr Jenkins said: ‘Previously the figures included those who died in hospital who had a mention of Covid-19 on their death certificate.

‘But if people were not being tested in care homes for example, and doctors were reluctant at first to mention it if they didn’t know, those will not be marked in the figures. 

‘Now the government is testing in care homes, the figures are likely to come more in line with the excess death figures.’

Mr Jenkins’ analysis of the figures shows that on average there were 12,741 in the first week of the year over the last five years.

But figures were lower this year, at around 11,900 – something which Mr Jenkins says was down to a weaker strain of seasonal flu.

That trend continued until week 12 of the year, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when this year’s weekly deaths overtook the average.

The 2020 figure then continued to surge up until the last three weeks, where the number of weekly deaths was around 20,000 people – around double the five year average.

Mr Jenkins says the lower then average death rate at the start of the year, from the weaker form of seasonal flu, may have contributed to the higher death rate at the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.

He said: ‘We had a very bad flu season in 2015 and 2018 in the UK.

Government includes Covid-19 death figures from outside of hospitals for the first time since outbreak

Public Health England (PHE) this week developed a new method of reporting daily COVID-19 deaths, to give a more complete number of those who have died from the virus.

The Government’s daily figure now include deaths that have occurred in all settings where there has been a positive COVID-19 test, including hospitals, care homes and the wider community in England.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales had already been reporting out of hospital deaths. 

PHE has since reported an additional 3,811 deaths since the start of the outbreak.

Of these, around 70 per cent were outside hospital settings and around 30 per cent were in hospital.

The additional hospital deaths have been identified through PHE’s laboratory system.

The total number of deaths reported by PHE is approximately 17 per cent higher than previous data showed.   

Dr Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director at PHE, said: ‘Every death from COVID-19 is a tragedy. Tracking the daily death count is vital to help us understand the impact of the disease.

‘These more complete data will give us a fuller and more up to date picture of deaths in England and will inform the government’s approach as we continue to protect the public.’

‘Going into 2020 it seems, on average, the mortality rate was much lower for flu than the five year average.

‘There was around 14,000 fewer deaths this year compared to the five year average prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

‘Many of those 14,000 who survived the weaker flu were probably people who would have bee susceptible to Covid-19.’ 

As reported previously reported by MailOnline, government figures were initially focused on those who died in hospital.

On Wednesday, the government added more than 3,800 deaths from those who had passed away from Covid-19 in care homes and the community

But the figures were at odds with ONS figures, which showed at least 4,996 deaths were recorded in care homes in the two weeks to 24 April.

It comes among a huge increase in testing across the UK. 

Last night, Health Secretary Matt Hancock declared at a press briefing that there had been 122,000 tests in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, a huge increase from barely 10,000 at the beginning of April. 

Mr Hancock said last night that the next phase of dealing with Covid-19 – which will include more community testing and contact tracing – will allow the Government ‘to reassert, as much as is safely possible, the liberty of us all’.

But it emerged around 40,000 of those tests counted had been posted out to homes and hospitals – and not actually processed.  

The government’s testing coordinator Prof John Newton this morning told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the target had been met ‘whichever way you count it’, but warned people ‘not to get too hung up on the targets.’

Earlier this week Boris Johnson declared that Britain is ‘past the peak’ of coronavirus – but urged the public to ‘keep going’ with lockdown to avoid a fresh outbreak.

So far there have been more than 177,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK, with the highest number of new cases coming on April 11, when there was 8719.