JONATHAN MAYO imagines ‘the new normal’ one year after Britain emerges from lockdown

Next week Boris Johnson will present his exit strategy, but with Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty warning that without a coronavirus vaccine it is ‘wholly unrealistic’ to expect to return to normal soon, what might life after lockdown actually look like? Drawing on scientific predictions and the experiences of countries emerging from isolation, JONATHAN MAYO imagines the ‘new normal’…

Some 12 challenging months have passed since coronavirus hit Britain, and it’s the start of a new day in what is now known as the AC (After-Covid) era.

As the sun rises, the Amazon drones are heading back to base having delivered packages containing a vast range of goods and foodstuffs to tens of thousands of households nationwide.

The drones are permitted to fly during darkness only, because at dawn the first NHS Pandemic Drones of the day (the so-called ‘Flying Doctors’) take off. Originally trialled in the U.S. and Australia after the first wave of infection, they were introduced here in autumn 2020.

These drones can monitor people’s temperature from 200ft up and relay information about heart and breathing rates to drone controllers looking for possible Covid-19 sufferers, so they can be isolated and their contacts traced.

The Full Lockdown initiated in March 2020 by Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been, after a grim two months of death and devastating economic fallout, eased from early June.

A phased return to school for children began, and many businesses, shops, garden centres and gyms re-opened — with strict social distancing observed.

By July, those restaurants, bars, pubs, cafes and hair and beauty salons which hadn’t folded, were able to welcome customers, but with restrictions on numbers.

And by September, as new cases fell to single figures, the ‘two-metre rule’ was relaxed, although face masks were still compulsory. Life had begun to return to some semblance of BC (Before Covid) normality.

Then, in mid-October, the virus returned in a devastating second wave — just like the Spanish Flu a century before.

Strict social distancing was back and a ‘partial lockdown’ instigated — and then the Pandemic Drones were deployed.

Now they share airspace with police drones which monitor public spaces and areas that have seen outbreaks of civil unrest — mainly unemployed youths — and gang violence.

If drone operators spot gatherings of more than three people or other rule-flouting, they activate a recorded message broadcast from the drone, with police back-up if required.

The second wave peaked in December in the UK, with a phased return to work beginning in February. Such is the new normal in the AC era. This morning, news bulletins lead with reports that a Covid-19 vaccine is to be introduced. Britons won’t be holding their breath: there have been many false dawns as scientists worldwide try to conquer this plague.

Newspapers, meanwhile, are full of the developments in the U.S. election campaign. Due to have taken place in November 2020, the election was postponed when the second wave hit the U.S.

The death rate now stands some way north of 300,000, and Donald Trump has taken a battering for his decision to end lockdown early, the economic catastrophe that followed, and because the U.S. healthcare system failed millions.

Black Americans and hardcore Trump supporters with no health insurance have suffered disproportionately. Now the idea of a U.S. National Health Service dominates live TV debates between Trump and his surprise new Democratic rival, Andrew Cuomo. (The former governor of New York was hailed for his management of the outbreak, and was the popular choice after official nominee Joe Biden was struck down by coronavirus and withdrew.)

As the daily commute begins, thousands travel on the newly nationalised railway and bus services. Many private public transport firms went bust during lockdown as revenue from fares dried up.

Train and Tube operators have added extra carriages to boost social distancing, and standing room is minimal. Facemasks are ‘strongly recommended’ but not compulsory.

In the wake of lockdown, during which millions of people worked from home (WFH), Barclays CEO Jes Staley famously predicted the end of the ‘big office’. It’s true that many of the skyscrapers at London’s Canary Wharf are now empty, but tens of thousands of employees have resumed working in reconfigured offices with desks at least two metres apart.

All work locations (and shops above a certain square footage) are required to have heat-sensing cameras at the entrance. Anyone with a raised temperature is refused entry and sent to a Covid-19 testing site or to one of the many mobile units.

Flexible working is common and many have opted to WFH permanently, moving to cheaper, larger houses in rural areas, and triggering a collapse in city centre house prices, especially in London.

The commuters who travel as they did BC look rather different. Another legacy of the lockdown is the dress code.

People dress as they did when WFH, and trainers and jeans are prevalent. (For women who still choose to dress up for meetings, routinely conducted by video now, the internet conferencing company Zoom — now worth hundreds of billions of pounds — has produced its own range of ‘tops’). In general, though, clothes-shopping has gone out of fashion.

During lockdown women pared down their wardrobes and curbed their spending, and the habit seems to have stuck.

This hasn’t helped the few surviving High Street stores such as Zara, Primark and Next.

When it comes to grooming, there’s a trend for longer hair for both men and women. Unable to get to salons and barber shops during Full Lockdown, and still fearful of the risks posed by the proximity of a hairdresser, people have embraced a shaggier look. And many women are going grey, which is now seen as rather chic.

And, of course, nearly everyone wears a face mask; some paper, some high-tech, some with designer logos, while schools provide them in the school colours.

Nationally, the domestic production of PPE (personal protective equipment) — from face masks and visors to full hazmat gear — to boost imported kit, remains a priority because of fears of a third deadly wave that would swamp the NHS. (The Nightingale Hospitals remain on ‘Covid-19’ standby but are now being used to shift the huge backlog of routine operations cancelled during both waves of infection.)

Safe-guarding the NHS was the reason for one of the more controversial government policies — the ‘Immunity Passport’ scheme. Anyone who has antibodies to the Covid-19 virus — and is therefore probably immune — qualifies for one of these, which is delivered to their smartphone. Those without mobiles are issued with a credit card-sized pass, labelled ‘V-Free’, instead.

The immunity scheme grants holders access to football grounds, theatres and cinemas. All such venues have reduced capacity and allocate seating with a minimum of two empty seats either side, in front and behind.

As travel firms struggle to generate business, hotels, B&Bs, and cruise companies (trips will resume from September 2021) will take bookings only from individuals with an Immunity Passport.

Airlines — now nationalised — are offering a limited number of international flights. Many have removed the middle seats from planes and installed plastic hoods on headrests. They no longer carry passengers over 65 or anyone with underlying health problems. Apps have become a vital tool in the fight against coronavirus. One of the most popular tells you if your bus or train has too many people on board, putting you at risk. Another more sophisticated app can warn how many people around you have had coronavirus, with whom they have been in contact, and where they have been.

It enables epidemiologists to track the progress of the virus and predict its spread. Millions of Britons have welcomed it as a means of safeguarding themselves and others, despite concern over privacy issues and data collection.

Overall, Britain is a much quieter country, with a growing movement of people who call themselves ‘Lockdowners’ — those reluctant to risk venturing too far because they’ve not yet had coronavirus.

With unemployment levels so high — a fifth of the population — civil unrest is a constant issue. There is also concern that society is becoming divided between those with Immunity Passports and the Lockdowners, while ‘grey apartheid’ describes the continuing isolation of millions of elderly people from family and friends.

While most Britons still greet each other with a friendly nod, they have not shaken hands for more than a year.

As the morning goes on, people patiently queue outside shops on the now-fading yellow social distancing marks.

Supermarkets continue to do good business, but Britons have got into the habit of having food (and everything else) delivered.

The result has been the closure of thousands of retail outlets, while restaurants and bars continue to suffer from the reluctance to socialise. The ‘delivery-based economy’ is a buzzword for most politicians.

That economy is largely contactless (money is perceived as an infection risk) and cashless, with the withdrawal by the Bank of England of smaller denominations.

For those in work, albeit on reduced salaries, job security is a thing of the past. The TUC worries that robots (which don’t catch coronavirus) will increasingly be deployed by manufacturers, leading to further layoffs. Food banks and Universal Credit are now a way of life for many middle-class families.

The political landscape has changed dramatically. The Conservatives are pursuing economic policies inconceivable just 18 months ago, and government intervention on a massive scale looks set to stay. Labour is finding it hard to land a blow in this area.

Boris Johnson remains popular but there is pressure from the new Tory constituencies in the North for investment because, according to one critic, ‘the Government’s multi-billion rescue package proved that the magic money tree was there all along’.

The Brexit trade deal, scheduled to be in place by December 31, 2020, has been extended by a year after video negotiations proved slow and unproductive.

At the height of the Full Lockdown, the number of cars on the roads dropped to levels last seen in 1955. The figure has risen, but pollution is below 2020 levels and scientists report significant air quality improvement across Europe and Asia. Whether the pandemic has had an effect on climate change has yet to be established, but the environmental movement was boosted by the outbreak. The enforced isolation has resulted in an appreciation for a simpler life, as well as for the natural world.

Many congregations able to worship together during lockdown only using video conferencing have installed permanent cameras in churches so services can be relayed to their new online audience.

The most successful innovation of 2021 has been the revival of the drive-thru. Fast-food companies have been joined by drive-thru garden centres, drive-thru DIY stores and drive-thru supermarkets.

The first drive-thru cinemas since the 1950s are due to open in a few weeks. Movie production worldwide has yet to return to normal, so only classic films will be shown.

On a brighter note, seaside resorts are preparing for their first influx of visitors since spring 2020. With foreign air travel severely restricted, ‘staycation’ holidays are the only real option for most.

As this will lead to overcrowding in some areas, the Government has unveiled a new holiday policy effective from July. They have revived the Victorian custom called ‘wakes week’ when whole towns or factories took holidays on allocated weeks. In 2021, this will be done county by county.

The order was decided in a televised lottery draw made by Boris Johnson. The lucky people of Essex are going on holiday first.

In preparation, councils responsible for the most popular British beaches have followed Italy’s lead and are installing plastic cubicles (with space for two loungers and a beach umbrella) to keep sunbathers apart. Lifeguards will enforce social distancing in the water.

Elsewhere, plastic screens have become a common sight — between tables in restaurants, in mini-cabs between driver and passengers and, of course, in shops to shield staff from customers.

As evening falls, the nation gathers around laptops and televisions. The TV schedules look very different from 2020. Gritty dramas, especially those set in hospitals, are out of favour (Casualty and Holby City were axed last year). Instead, it is all comedies and light entertainment, with David Jason tempted out of retirement to star in a revival of Only Fools And Horses.

As for socialising, staying in is the new going out. Online dating rocketed during lockdown and remains popular. However, casual hook-ups are perceived as high risk for infection, so chats online and by phone are the norm in early courtship. In an uncertain world, there is a trend to forge serious relationships rather than brief liaisons.

And then, of course, there’s the lockdown Baby Boom! In the past few months, maternity units have been busy delivering the generation dubbed ‘Coronials’. Florence (as in Nightingale) and Joe (as in the nation’s PE teacher, Joe Wicks) are the most popular names.

Sadly, Full Lockdown also brought simmering tensions to the boil and the courts are processing a record number of divorces.

Looking to the future, Britons are desperate for something to celebrate — and they won’t be disappointed. Preparations are underway to mark Prince Philip’s 100th birthday in June, and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex are to make their first trip to Britain since early 2020 to join the celebrations — and to introduce their own ‘Coronial’, baby Diana, a sister for Archie.

Around the country, street parties are being organised — with tables spaced safely apart.

It’s hoped that the Prince’s birthday will help us all move forward in our Brave New AC World.