What is the UK’s REAL coronavirus death toll?

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What is the UK’s REAL coronavirus death toll? Statistics show disparity between official daily count and true number is as high as 41% – as data shows 1,644 people have now died in care homes in England and Wales

  • Office for National Statistics recorded 13,121 COVID-19 deaths by April 10
  • Department of Health figures by that time, however, only showed 9,288
  • The process of backdating deaths, which can take weeks, means totals are low
  • A third of everyone who died between April 4 and April 10 had coronavirus
  • The England and Wales data shows 1,644 people died in care homes by April 10 
  • Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID

By Sam Blanchard Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline

Published: | Updated:

The true number of coronavirus victims in the UK may still be 41 per cent higher than daily Government statistics are letting on.

Weekly data published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that at least 13,121 people had died in England and Wales by April 10. 

Department of Health statistics had, by that date, announced only 9,288 fatalities – the backdated deaths increased the total by 41.2 per cent. That suggests the death toll of 16,509 confirmed yesterday could actually be more like 23,000.

And care homes in England and Wales had recorded the deaths of at least 1,644 residents by April 10 – today’s figures reveal one of the first real glimpses of the crisis unfolding in the care industry. 

Fifteen per cent of all the people dying with COVID-19 were succumbing to their illness outside of hospitals, the stats showed, revealing the crisis cannot be managed solely by the NHS. 

And one in every three people (33.6 per cent) who died between April 4 and April 10 had coronavirus. 

The number of deaths recorded in week 15 of this year (April 4 to April 10) was significantly higher than the average for this time of year – around 8,000 extra deaths were recorded. Data shows these coincided with a dramatic spike in COVID-19 deaths

The Office for National Statistics data, which reveals the true scale of coronavirus deaths, is now considerably higher than the Department of Health's daily updates

The Office for National Statistics data, which reveals the true scale of coronavirus deaths, is now considerably higher than the Department of Health’s daily updates

‘This shows the terrible toll that coronavirus is having on elderly and disabled people in care homes,’ said Liz Kendall, the Labour Party’s shadow minister for social care.

‘Yet these awful figures are only scratching the surface of the emerging crisis in social care, because they are already 11 days out of date.

‘The Government must now publish daily figures of COVID-19 deaths outside hospital, including in care homes, so we know the true scale of the problem. 

‘This is essential to tackling the spread of the virus, ensuing social care has the resources it needs and getting vital PPE and testing to care workers on the frontline.’

Deaths that happened in care homes before April 11, and were officially reported by April 18, added up to 1,644, the ONS statistics showed.

And the organisation also revealed 466 people had died at home with the coronavirus, 87 had passed away in hospices, 21 in ‘other communal establishments’ and 45 elsewhere in the community.

The ONS data counts anybody who had COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate, whether it was the main cause of death or not. 

HOW IS THE OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS DATA DIFFERENT?

The ONS releases data each week on a Tuesday which provides the clearest picture of England and Wales’s coronavirus crisis. The data only relates to a period up to 10 days before it is released, meaning it is out of date, but it includes deaths recorded in every corner of the community.

It broke down the deaths recorded from all across the country, not just the hospitals – which are the figures collated by NHS England and released daily. 

The Department of Health’s daily statistics round-up includes death data from NHS England, Public Health Wales, the Scottish Government and Public Health Agency in Northern Ireland, plus testing data from Public Health England.

These numbers are all backdated in stages and only the testing data – not the deaths – are actually relevant to the day on which they’re published.

Of 429 deaths announced yesterday (April 20) by NHS England, for example, 85 actually happened on April 19; 210 on April 18; 53 on April 17; 28 on April 16; and the rest happened before that. This means that the totals announced on those days were not accurate for that date either.

The ONS statistics, however, collate death registrations from everywhere – including those recorded by GPs, in care homes, hospices or other parts of the community – and waits until they are all verified and dated properly, then brings out a true total.

This figure will always be larger than the number announced by the Department of Health or the NHS because it is so comprehensive and meticulously put into categories.